Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States could bring significant economic and geopolitical shifts, with potential impacts on South Africa’s property markets, trade dynamics, and investor confidence.
Izak Odendaal, chief investment strategist at Old Mutual Wealth noted that initial market response has seen the dollar rally and US bond yields rise.
Unlike in 2016, this outcome was anticipated, with markets broadly positioned for a Republican win due to Trump’s recent momentum in the polls.
The quick resolution of the election results has reduced uncertainty, which markets like.
A Trump presidency is now a known quantity. His economic policies include tariffs on imports (especially from China), anti-immigration measures, and support for lower taxes and deregulation.
Some of these policies could disrupt businesses, said Odendaal. Tariffs complicate the business environment, and without immigrants, many businesses may struggle to find workers. However, tax cuts and deregulation are generally positive for businesses.
These tax cuts will likely be funded by additional borrowing, leading to upward pressure on bond yields.
If Trump’s policies are fully enacted, the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much due to inflationary risks. However, a rate cut of 25 basis points is still expected later this week, he said.
A stronger dollar could put pressure on emerging market currencies and interest rates. While the rand is trading slightly weaker, it is not a significant move by historical standards and does not change the outlook for SA Reserve Bank rate cuts in the short term. A cut at the next monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting is still likely, said Odendaal.
In terms of geopolitics, Trump is expected to pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, support Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah, and take a hard line on Iran. While he is hawkish on China, he may be less likely to support Taiwan.
Given South Africa’s stance on some of these issues, the foreign policy environment could become more challenging, requiring greater diplomatic skill. However, Trump is likely not very interested in Africa or South Africa.
Odendaal said that South Africa should continue its path of economic reform to rely more on internal growth drivers, particularly investment, rather than the global environment. Local markets will continue to move in line with global trends.
A Trump presidency is not necessarily good or bad for markets, but we should expect more volatility, he said. Policies could change at short notice. Investors should focus on the underlying issues and maintain a diversified investment plan.
Historically, the US stock market has performed well regardless of which party controlled the White House, except during the two terms of George W. Bush, which coincided with the dotcom crash and the financial crisis.
Local investors in South Africa might react to these changes in several ways:
Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States could have several implications for South Africa’s property markets:
