A new opinion poll reveals that nearly a third of likely South African voters are undecided or unwilling to disclose their preference ahead of the upcoming election, adding uncertainty to the anticipated outcome.
According to Bloomberg, while previous surveys indicated the ruling African National Congress (ANC) might lose its majority for the first time since 1994, they often excluded undecided respondents, making their predictions potentially unreliable, according to Afrobarometer, a pan-African survey group.
Afrobarometer's recent telephonic poll of 1,800 South Africans, commissioned by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, highlights this uncertainty, stating that the final election outcome is uncertain as many voters can still be swayed in the last week.
The May 29 election is expected to be South Africa's tightest in the democratic era. Though the ANC, which won 57.5% of the vote in 2019, is likely to remain the largest party, it may need to form a coalition to stay in power.
Of those polled between April 23 and May 11, 86% were registered to vote, and 88% of them were likely to cast ballots. A quarter were undecided, and 6% did not disclose their preference. Excluding undecided voters, the ANC would secure 39% of the vote, the Democratic Alliance 19%, and both the Economic Freedom Fighters and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, 10% each. The poll had a 2.3% margin of error.
These findings align with a recent survey by eNCA and MarkData, which projected the ANC at 43.4%. The Social Research Foundation's April survey gave the ANC 37%, but its daily tracking poll now estimates the party's support between 44.1% and 45.3%, depending on turnout.
According to Reuters, the latest poll from the SRF showed ANC support at 44.8%, up from 37.7% a month earlier, based on a 66% voter turnout scenario similar to the 2019 election. Earlier polls by Ipsos and The Brenthurst Foundation found lower ANC support, at 40.2% and 39%, respectively.
If the ANC needs to form a coalition with larger opposition parties like the Democratic Alliance or Economic Freedom Fighters, it may have to concede more in negotiations. However, the ANC's grassroots campaign and the slowdown in support for Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which initially drew voters away from the ANC, have helped it regain some ground.
The SRF poll, with a base sample of around 2,000 and a margin of error of 2.2%, has been incorporating 200 new respondents daily since April 15, increasing to 300 respondents daily until May 28, the day before the election.
Outcomes and Investment
The rand has appreciated 5.4% against the dollar over the past month, driven by expectations that the ANC will secure enough votes to form a coalition without major economic policy shifts, noted Bloomberg.
It said that if ANC support falls below 45%, it might need to partner with larger parties. An alliance with the EFF or MKP could reduce investor confidence, while a coalition with the business-friendly DA could boost sentiment.
Investors are confident that stocks, bonds, and the rand will continue to rise, fuelled by record-high commodity prices bolstering South Africa’s export-driven economy. A Bloomberg survey of 26 emerging-market investors showed a strong preference for South Africa over other African powerhouses, Egypt and Nigeria.
Almost two-thirds of investors surveyed said they would increase their exposure to South Africa if the ANC forms a coalition with the opposition DA, and 19% would do so if the ANC wins outright but with a reduced majority. Over 90% anticipate a market rally if the election outcome ensures policy continuity.
"If the election turns out reasonably you could see quite a bit of foreign buying coming into our markets," said Peter Armitage, chief executive of a Anchor Capital.
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