Community and smaller retail centres emerged as the top performers in Q1 2025, according to the latest Clur Shopping Centre Index.
These centres, along with super-regional malls and the Western Cape, drove the strongest growth during the quarter, says Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International, the organisation behind the index.
“The outperformance of community and smaller centres points to a shift in the consumer value system,” Clur said. She describes the evolving landscape as a ‘Belief Economy,’ signalling the decline of the ‘Attention Economy.’
“Meaningful values are now prioritised over excessive exposure and trusted emotional and human connection is the new currency. This is a critical backdrop for future shopping centre and business strategies,” she said.
Clur noted that the national Clur Index outpaced the March 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), with growth recorded in both annualised trading density and base rentals compared to December 2024.
“The rent-to-sales ratio maintained its lowest level over five years, indicating continued stability and reduced market risk,” she added.
The Clur Index is compiled from the Clur Collective, a widely accepted asset management benchmark and economic indicator that now tracks over 5.4 million square metres across more than 130 shopping centres in South Africa and Namibia.
The platform provides key insights for both listed and unlisted property funds to assess asset performance and maximise returns.
“All measured shopping centre segments outperformed March 2025 CPI over the quarter,” Clur said. However, community and smaller centres led with the highest year-on-year growth rate of 5.1%, outpacing CPI by 2.4% and growing 1.4% from December 2024.
Small regional centres followed with 3.6% growth, 0.9% above CPI, while regional centres saw a 0.9% improvement compared to December 2024.
Nationally, the Clur Index recorded an annualised trading density of R41,162 per square metre, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. This exceeded March 2025 CPI by 0.7% and rose 0.4% relative to the previous year.
Super regional centres posted the highest trading density at R50,440 per square metre, followed by community and smaller centres at R46,564.
In rental growth, community and smaller centres again led with a year-on-year increase of 5%, beating CPI by 2.3%. Regional centres were close behind at 4.9%, exceeding CPI by 2.2%.
The national base rent for Q1 2025 stood at R233.10 per square metre, up 3.4% year-on-year – 0.7% above CPI – and marginally up by 0.1% from December 2024.
Super regional centres commanded the highest rentals at R314.23 per square metre, followed by regional centres at R227.48. However, super regional centre rental growth lagged at 2.6% year-on-year, falling short of CPI by 0.1%.
Among the major provinces, the Western Cape reported the strongest rental performance at R256.22 per square metre, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, surpassing CPI by 3.5%. KwaZulu-Natal followed at R238.53, up 2.5% year-on-year, while Gauteng recorded a 2.4% increase to R233.17 per square metre.
The national base rent-to-sales ratio remained stable at 6.6% year-on-year.
“The market has not deviated from this level since late 2023, indicating an ongoing position of stability and reduced market risk against the volatility of the last five years,” Clur said.
Super regional centres had the highest rent-to-sales ratio at 7.2%, while community and smaller centres recorded the lowest at 4.8%.
Among the top provinces, the Western Cape had the lowest ratio at 6.1%, and Gauteng the highest at 6.9%.
