South African motorists could be in for further relief at the pumps in June, with unaudited late-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) pointing to a notable drop in fuel prices.
The potential reduction is largely driven by stabilising international oil prices and a firmer rand.
According to mid-May estimates, petrol prices are expected to drop by 30 cents per litre for both 93 and 95 octane grades.
Diesel users may benefit even more, with wholesale prices for 0.05% and 0.005% sulphur content diesel forecast to decrease by 60 and 61 cents per litre respectively.
Illuminating paraffin is also expected to come down by 63 cents per litre.
| Fuel Type | Expected Change |
|---|---|
| Petrol 93 (ULP) | ↓ 30 cents per litre |
| Petrol 95 (ULP) | ↓ 30 cents per litre |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | ↓ 60 cents per litre |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | ↓ 61 cents per litre |
| Illuminating Paraffin (wholesale) | ↓ 63 cents per litre |
Unaudited mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund)
The expected reductions come after a relatively stable month for global oil markets, underpinned by easing tensions between the United States and China, which recently agreed to a pause on new tariffs and a rollback of existing ones.
Brent crude has been trading at nearly US$64 per barrel, recovering slightly from recent lows, but still well below levels seen earlier in the year.
Closer to home, the South African rand has also shown signs of resilience, trading at around R18.22 to the US dollar by Thursday.
While still volatile, the currency has strengthened from previous levels on the back of improved global risk sentiment and slightly better-than-expected inflation data from the US, which has led to lowered expectations for US interest rate hikes.
Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, noted that the rand has been more settled recently and could continue trending towards R18.00/USD, supported by improved market optimism and reduced risk aversion globally.
Despite the positive outlook for fuel prices, South Africa continues to face significant domestic challenges. The country’s official unemployment rate rose to 32.9% in the first quarter of 2025 – one of the highest in the world – while rolling power cuts returned this week, as Eskom resumed evening load shedding due to generation shortfalls.
Economists caution that while lower fuel prices offer some short-term relief for households and businesses, structural issues like weak economic growth and underperforming infrastructure remain a drag on the broader economic outlook.
Final adjustments to fuel prices for June will be announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy at the end of the month, based on a combination of international oil prices, the rand/dollar exchange rate, and refining and distribution costs.
If confirmed, the anticipated reductions will follow a 22-cent per litre cut in petrol prices earlier in May, and would further ease pressure on transport and logistics costs, potentially helping to curb inflation in the short term.
