Consumer inflation in South Africa in January 2025 was 3.2%, slightly up from 3% in December 2024, but remains near the bottom of the central bank’s target range.

The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the first to incorporate changes to the CPI basket and weights announced last month.

South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago in a Bloomberg interview this week cautioned that rising tariffs are a risk to the global economy and may disrupt the disinflation process, reversing central banks’ interest rate-cutting cycles.

Speaking to broadcaster Newzroom Afrika after the data release, Kganyago said he expects South African inflation to edge toward the 4.5% midpoint of its target range, where the central bank prefers to anchor expectations.

The CPI for food & non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) increased by 2.3% in the 12 months to January, lower than the 2.5% increase in December 2024.

Inflation slowed for several food categories, including meat, fruits & nuts, sugar, confectionery & desserts, fish & other seafood, and milk, dairy products & eggs.

Higher inflation rates were observed for cereal products, hot beverages, cold beverages, oils & fats, and vegetables.

Meat prices were 0.5% lower in January 2025 compared to January 2024, marking the third consecutive month of deflation for meat.
However, in January, meat prices rose by 0.8% month-on-month, following a 0.5% rise in December.

Cereal product prices increased by 3.8% annually, up from 3.7% in December.
Maize meal prices rose by 4.8% from December to January, leading to an annual increase of 10.1%.
Samp prices saw a 15.4% annual increase.

In contrast, bread prices decreased slightly, with white bread dropping by 0.7% and brown bread by 0.5%. Annual increases for white and brown bread were 1.9% and 1.0%, respectively.

Hot beverage inflation remained high at 13.7% annually in January, slightly up from 13.5% in December. Overall, hot beverage prices rose by 1.0% month-on-month.
Instant coffee and rooibos tea saw month-on-month increases of 1.4%.

The annual inflation rate for instant coffee entered double-digit territory in March 2022, briefly dropping below 10% in August 2023 before peaking at 22.3% in August 2024.
The rate in January was 17.2%, the highest of all food products.

Other notable increases in January included samp, fresh cabbages, dried beans, black tea, whiteners, fizzy drinks, and chocolate.

The fuel index rose for the third consecutive month, increasing by 0.9% in January compared to December.
The annual fuel rate improved to -4.5% from -10.2%.
For example, the price for inland 95-octane petrol was R21.59 in January, up from R21.05 in October 2024.

This contributed to a slight rise in overall transport inflation, which edged higher to -0.2% from -2.0% in December.

Insurance & financial services is a new index in the CPI and increased by 0.9% from December to January.