Fitch Ratings has indicated that it might upgrade South Africa’s credit outlook if the government adheres to its three-year budget plan aimed at stabilising debt.
“It could be positive for the sovereign’s rating if debt does follow the path projected by the government,” Fitch stated on Monday, while also noting that the budget forecasts are optimistic.
Last week, the National Treasury projected that state debt would peak at 75.5% of GDP by March 2026, slightly higher than its February estimate.
In contrast, Fitch expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 76.9% by March 2027, Bloomberg reported.
“Our debt forecast is higher than that of the government,” Fitch said, attributing this partly to anticipated transfers to the struggling state-owned logistics company Transnet.
Fitch also mentioned that it might revise South Africa’s credit outlook if the government’s debt reduction efforts improve due to better-than-expected economic performance.
“If we become more confident that South Africa’s medium-term growth outlook will improve sufficiently to reduce challenges associated with fiscal consolidation, this could also be positive for the rating,” Fitch added.
The Treasury has revised its average growth forecasts upwards to 1.8% over the next three years, from 1.6% projected in February, due to a more stable energy supply and expected increases in infrastructure investment. Over the past decade, GDP growth has averaged less than 1%.
In September, Fitch affirmed South Africa’s rating at three levels below investment grade with a stable outlook.
RMB Morgan Stanley said last week that South Africa’s improving economic prospects after years of muted growth are expected to result in better fiscal metrics and may soon lead to an upgrade of its junk-rated debt.
“South Africa stands out as the fastest-improving fiscal story” across Morgan Stanley’s emerging-market scope of coverage when measuring for fiscal-risk premia, Andrea Masia, an economist at its Johannesburg-based unit, said in a note.
“Improving growth dynamics, which feed into better fiscal metrics and a stabilisation in debt, may drive expectations of a sovereign credit-rating upgrade in the coming review period,” Masia said.
While South Africa’s debt levels are still higher than those of nations with a BB credit rating, “the direction of travel is clearly positive and may support the case for an outlook change to positive from some agencies,” Masia said.
The nation received a full set of junk ratings in 2020 when Moody’s Ratings downgraded South Africa, leaving it without an investment-grade assessment for the first time in 25 years.
An African based credit ratings company is being established to meet the unique needs of the continent's developing countries.
The African Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) is an initiative by the African Union designed to provide more balanced and comprehensive evaluations of African countries’ creditworthiness. This agency aims to address perceived biases in existing global credit rating systems and improve access to international capital for African nations.
ACRA’s goal is to offer more accurate risk assessments that consider the unique economic indicators and conditions of African countries. This initiative is part of a broader effort to support affordable access to capital and the development of domestic financial markets across the continent.
Currently, the credit rating industry in Africa is dominated by three international agencies: Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch, which together control about 95% of the global credit rating business.
Credit rating agencies assess a borrower’s creditworthiness in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation.
A credit rating can be assigned to any entity seeking to borrow money, including individuals, corporations, state or provincial authorities, or sovereign governments.
Investors use these ratings to make decisions about risk and return, and a rating is typically required if an institution wants to raise funds on financial markets.
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