After holding steady in the 5–6% range for ten months, annual consumer price inflation slowed to 4.6% in July from 5.1% in June.
This is the lowest inflation rate in three years, matching the rate from July 2021.
Notably, lower annual rates were recorded for several product groups, including food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB), transport, and housing and utilities.
The monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) was 0.4%, higher than the 0.1% rise recorded between May and June.
The annual rate for food and NAB was 4.5% in July, down from 4.6% in June. This category has shown a slowing inflation trend since its peak of 9.0% in November 2023, now at its lowest since September 2020 (3.8%).
While overall food inflation has slowed, the bread and cereals category is showing upward momentum, with an annual increase of 5.6% in July, up from 5.2% in June.
Products with the largest annual increases in July include rice (up 21.3%), pizza or pies (up 11.6%), and samp (up 6.9%).
Maize meal prices rose on average by 5.1%. On a positive note, bread flour, cake flour, pasta, and macaroni are cheaper than a year ago.
Meat, the most heavily weighted food group in the inflation basket, recorded a monthly decline of 0.4% and an annual rise of 1.0%.
Hot beverages continue to witness high inflation rates. The price index for this category increased sharply by 17.6% in the 12 months to July, up from 16.5% in June.
Significant annual price increases were recorded for instant coffee (up 21.8%), drinking chocolate (up 17.7%), black tea (up 15.7%), ground coffee and coffee beans (up 14.6%), and rooibos tea (up 11.1%).
Cappuccino sachets recorded the lowest price increase in this category, rising by 7.6% over the same period.
Fuel prices declined for the second consecutive month. Most categories in the transport group, except for public transport, witnessed lower annual rates.
This includes new and used vehicles, running costs, and fuel. As a result, annual transport inflation softened to 4.2% in July from 5.5% in June.
Fuel prices fell for the second straight month, declining by 3.6% in July following a 4.6% decrease in June. Inland 95-octane petrol was 99 cents cheaper, falling from R24.25 in June to R23.26 in July.
The average price for diesel declined by 41 cents over the same period, from R23.76 to R23.35.
Most municipalities implement tariff increases in July. Overall, the housing and utilities index increased by 2.6% between June and July, leading to an annual increase of 5.3%, contributing 1.3 percentage points to the overall inflation rate.
Tariff hikes were lower in 2024. Electricity tariffs increased by 12.1% (compared with 15.3% in 2023), water tariffs by 7.5% (compared with 9.6% in 2023), and property rates by 10.7% (compared with 8.4% in 2023).
An exploration of tariffs over time shows electricity prices rising the fastest over the last 15 years, with an average growth rate of 10.5% per year from 2009 to 2024, outpacing water tariffs (up by an average of 10.2% per year) and property rates (up by an average of 6.8% per year).
In the last 10 years, water tariffs have risen the most, increasing by an average of 9.9% per year. Electricity tariffs increased by an average of 9.5% per year, and property rates by an average of 6.6%.
A five-year analysis from 2019 to 2024 shows electricity tariffs outpacing water and property rates, growing by an average of 11.2% per year.
Stats SA surveys electricity, water, and property rates across 39 municipalities, totalling 117 prices. The bulk of these were captured in July, with 10 prices – mainly from smaller municipalities – due to be surveyed in August.
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