In 2023, renewable sources contributed a record 30% of the world’s electricity, primarily fuelled by the rapid expansion of solar and wind power.
The renewables revolution – led by solar and wind – is breaking records and driving ever-cleaner electricity production.
“The world is now at a turning point where solar and wind not only slow emissions growth, but actually start to push fossil generation into decline,” according to global energy think tank,
Ember
.
Ember’s fifth annual Global Electricity Review offers a comprehensive analysis of the shifts in global electricity generation throughout 2023, drawing from reported data.
The report delves into electricity data from 215 countries, incorporating the latest figures from 80 nations representing 92% of global electricity demand.
It further dissects data from 13 geographic and economic clusters, including Africa, Asia, the EU, and the G7.
Additionally, it offers in-depth examinations of the top six CO2 emitting countries and regions, which collectively contribute over 72% of global power sector emissions.
In South Africa, the contribution of renewable energy technologies – wind, solar PV and CSP – increased in 2022 to a total of 6.2GW installed capacity, providing 7.3% of the total energy mix.
Ember said that the expansion of clean capacity would have been enough to deliver a fall in global power sector emissions in 2023. However, drought caused a five-year low in hydropower, which created a shortfall that was met in large part by coal.
It said that renewables have expanded from 19% of global electricity in 2000, driven by an increase in solar and wind from 0.2% in 2000 to a record 13.4% in 2023.
China was the main contributor in 2023, accounting for 51% of the additional global solar generation and 60% of new global wind generation.
Combined with nuclear, the world generated almost 40% of its electricity from low-carbon sources in 2023. As a result, the CO2 intensity of global power generation reached a new record low, 12% lower than its peak in 2007.
Solar meanwhile was the fastest-growing source of electricity generation for the 19th year in a row, and surpassed wind to become the largest source of new electricity for the second year running. Solar added more than twice as much new electricity as coal in 2023.
The shortfall in hydropower was met by an increase in coal generation, which led to a 1% increase in global power sector emissions, noted the think tank. 95% of the coal generation rise in 2023 occurred in four countries that were severely affected by droughts: China, India, Viet Nam and Mexico.
Global electricity demand rose to a record high in 2023, with an increase of 627 TWh which is equivalent to adding the entire demand of Canada (+607 TWh). Nevertheless, the 2023 increase of 2.2% was below the average for recent years, due to a pronounced decrease in demand in OECD countries, notably the US (-1.4%) and the EU (-3.4%).
In contrast, the rapid demand growth in China (+6.9%) was equivalent to the total global growth in demand in 2023. More than half of the electricity demand rise in 2023 was from five technologies: electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, electrolysers, air conditioning and data centres.
The spread of these technologies will accelerate the growth in electricity demand, but overall energy demand will decline as electrification is much more efficient than fossil fuels.
Ember forecasts fossil generation to fall slightly in 2024, leading to larger falls in subsequent years. Demand growth in 2024 is expected to be higher than in 2023 (+968 TWh) but clean generation growth is forecast to be even greater (+1300 TWh), leading to a 2% fall in global fossil generation (-333 TWh).
Already the rollout of clean generation, led by solar and wind, has helped to slow the growth in fossil fuels by almost two-thirds in the last ten years.
The decade ahead will see the energy transition enter a new phase. A permanent decline in fossil fuel use in the power sector at a global level is now inevitable, leading to falling sector emissions.
There is a global consensus on the scale of ambition needed. At the UN’s COP28 climate change conference in December, global
leaders committed to increase renewables to 60% of global electricity by 2030 –
almost halving power sector emissions and putting the world on a pathway aligned with the 1.5C climate goal.
“The renewables future has arrived. Solar in particular is accelerating faster than anyone thought possible. The decline of power sector emissions is now inevitable. 2023 was likely the pivot point – peak emissions in the power sector – a major turning point in the history of energy,” said Dave Jones, Global Insights Programme Director at Ember.
“But the pace of emissions falls depends on how fast the renewables revolution continues. The good news is we already know the key enablers that help countries unleash the full potential of solar and wind.”
