South African green economy non-profit GreenCape has published its 2025 Market Intelligence Report (MIR), highlighting the most promising investment opportunities in key renewable energy sectors in South Africa.
South Africa has over 80 GW of renewable energy currently under development, with 32 GW expected to be grid-connected by 2030.
Private sector interest in large-scale renewable energy has surged, driven by regulatory reform and improved access to power purchase agreements (PPAs) and wheeling contracts.
By 2030, private solar PV is projected to grow by 6 GW and wind power by 3.5 GW, representing a combined investment potential of R132 billion (R26.4 billion annually).
However, key barriers remain: grid capacity constraints, uncertainty around Eskom’s restructuring, and regulatory risks for PPAs. Addressing these could unlock even more investment.
The South African Renewable Energy Masterplan and designated special economic zones are poised to boost local manufacturing of renewable energy components, aligning with the Just Energy Transition (JET) Implementation Plan.
The commercial, industrial, and agricultural (CI&A) sectors have installed 3.2 GW of behind-the-meter (BTM) battery storage, with an additional 2 GW forecasted by 2030.
BTM energy storage is becoming increasingly valuable beyond backup power, enabling functions like demand response, tariff arbitrage, and peak shaving. The MIR estimates this market will grow to 2 GWh by 2030—an investment value of R10 billion.
Embedded solar PV systems are also growing rapidly. Between 2023 and 2024, the sector recorded a 25% compound growth, adding over 2 GW of new capacity—the highest annual increase to date. By 2030, embedded solar in CI&A sectors is expected to grow by 3.8 GW, translating to R53.2 billion in investment.
As this trend continues, utilities and distribution operators will need to adapt to manage increased complexity from decentralised energy generation.
Electrification of last-mile delivery, public transport, and mid-range freight vehicles represents the biggest near-term growth opportunity in South Africa’s EV sector.
Though currently concentrated in the luxury segment, passenger EVs are projected to grow to 21,100 units by 2030, representing R13.9 billion in potential sales.
Mid-range EV models and innovative financing—such as Electric Vehicles as a Service (EVaaS)—are expected to boost adoption.
Mid-mile logistics are expected to drive adoption of more affordable electric freight vehicles, with the market expected to grow to 1,000 vehicles, valued at R1.43 billion by 2030.
The growth of e-commerce and urban deliveries is fueling demand for electric two- and three-wheelers. From a base of 3,800 vehicles in 2024, this sector is forecast to grow by 17,900 vehicles by 2030—a R1.2 billion market.
Driven by fleet operators’ commitments and long-term procurement plans, electric bus sales are expected to grow by 420 buses by 2030, unlocking R2.9 billion in investment.
GreenCape’s reports reinforce the pivotal role that clean energy, green transport, and smart storage technologies will play in South Africa’s energy future.
With billions of rands in investment opportunities on the table, the country is positioning itself as a key player in the global green economy transition.
