Motorists can expect a mixed bag at the pumps in August, with mid-month fuel price data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) pointing to a drop in petrol prices – but yet another steep increase for diesel.
Fuel prices increased by 52 cents per litre for 95-octane petrol and 55 cents for 93-octane, while diesel went up by between 82 and 84 cents per litre in July.
According to the latest snapshot, petrol is showing an over-recovery of between 20 and 24 cents per litre, while diesel is under-recovering by around 62 cents per litre.
If current trends persist, this could translate into the following changes at the beginning of August:
-Petrol 93: down by 24c/l
-Petrol 95: down by 20c/l
-Diesel 0.05%: up by 63c/l
-Diesel 0.005%: up by 62c/l
-Illuminating paraffin: up by 26c/l
These adjustments reflect volatility in global oil markets and the ongoing rollercoaster in currency exchange rates.
Oil prices have recently edged lower following a pause in geopolitical escalation. Brent crude was trading at $69.23 a barrel on Tuesday, dipping slightly after US president Donald Trump issued a 50-day ultimatum for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine – a move which calmed fears of immediate sanctions, Reuters reported.
Still, the oil market remains highly sensitive. If Trump does follow through and the proposed sanctions are implemented, “it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market,” analysts at ING warned in a note on Tuesday.
The US dollar meanwhile, continued to recover from its multi-year low reached ahead of the original 9th July trade negotiations deadline said Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec. This put pressure on the local unit.
“That is, recent US dollar recovery (2.8%) has come on expectations that the time extension indicates the US favours trade deals over punitive tariffs, improving the US economic growth outlook from a worse case considered earlier in the year.
“Uncertainty does still persist on what the final outcome will be, and for how much longer the extensions and negotiations will continue. While markets are relying on the ‘taco trade’ (Trump always chickens out) there is room for disappointment,” Bishop said.
The dollar index has risen from 96.8 – last at this level in 2022 – to 98.1 during this month, causing the rand to correspondingly weaken to R19.97/$ from R17.48/$, with markets adopting a wait and see approach on the negotiations, Investec’s lead economist said.
On Saturday, Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from two of the United States’ largest trading partners—the European Union and Mexico—starting August 1.
South Africa could also face a 30% tariff on exports to the US, along with an additional 10% levy tied to its membership in the BRICS group of developing nations, Reuters reported.
On the domestic front, mining production edged up 0.2% year-on-year in May 2025, according to StatsSA. Iron ore was the biggest positive contributor, while coal and manganese continued to drag.
Seasonally adjusted output rose 3.7% month-on-month, a small but welcome boost to economic activity.
