South African households and businesses added 350.5MW of rooftop solar capacity in Q2 2024 (April to June), up from 240MW in Q1, according to GoSolr, a solar installation company backed by Patrice Motsepe and Standard Bank.
The group plans to invest R10 billion in a scheme to offer solar panels and batteries for rent to homes facing recurring blackouts.
Their aim is to establish approximately 500MW of solar energy capacity within four years.
At the end of June 2024, installed solar capacity stood at 5,790MW, according to GoSolr.
Since the start of the year, 586MW of rooftop solar has been added, now accounting for 6.52% of South Africa’s energy mix.
Solar adoption in South Africa is transitioning from a crisis response to load shedding to align with the global shift towards renewable energy.
Rooftop solar has surged in recent years due to South Africa's electricity crisis and load shedding, with households and businesses seeking alternative energy sources.
However, Eskom has managed to prevent load shedding since the end of March.
If this trend continues, South Africa will add around half the capacity it did last year by the end of 2024.
“Last year was an exceptional year; if things continue like this, South Africa will add around half the capacity it did last year by the end of 2024," said GoSolr CEO Andrew Middleton.
The current demand is driven by the rising cost of grid-supplied electricity. Eskom increased its direct tariff by 12.74% in April, and municipalities have passed these costs on to consumers at rates of 11% to 14%, effective 1 July.
Some municipalities have introduced controversial fixed-use tariffs, which, according to GoSolr, punish those who use less electricity and benefit those who use more. It disincentivises people using electricity sparingly, said Middleton.
GoSolr’s analysis shows that Eskom’s cost per kilowatt-hour is increasing due to the inefficiency of its ageing coal fleet and its loss of customers as solar penetrates the market.
“When demand for Eskom power goes down, it does not bring prices down. Instead, it brings prices up because Eskom has fewer customers and must increase prices to cover its costs,” said Middleton.
Generating power away from the increasingly expensive grid is not the only driver of solar adoption. Grid constraints and power outages due to “load reduction” are also motivating households and businesses to reduce their reliance on Eskom.
“South Africa needs huge investment in its transmission infrastructure, not just in high-capacity long-haul infrastructure but in the last mile, to the home,” said Middleton.
According to GoSolr, as South Africa stabilises its energy supply, the motivation for rooftop solar demand will shift towards customers wanting more of their energy from clean, renewable sources.
However, for the market to reach this point, solar installations must become accessible to lower-income households.
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