Motorists can look forward to further relief at the pumps next week, as the latest data reveals a significant over-recovery in fuel prices in April.
This over-recovery suggests a considerable decrease in both petrol and diesel prices next month, with only a few days remaining in March for any potential adjustments.
According to the latest fuel snapshot from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), petrol prices are showing a comfortable over-recovery of between 69 and 83 cents per litre.
Diesel motorists will benefit from a decrease of between 92 and 94 cents per litre. Additionally, the price of illuminating paraffin is projected to fall by 87 cents.
Despite the expected 3-cent-per-litre increase in the carbon fuel tax levy set to take effect on April 1, fuel prices are still on track to make a meaningful impact on consumer wallets.
Oil prices remain stable, and the rand continues to hold its ground against the US dollar.
On Wednesday morning, the rand gained slightly, trading at R18.25 against the dollar, reflecting a 0.2% improvement from its previous close. This strengthening comes as investors react to US president Donald Trump’s plans for reciprocal tariffs, which could potentially slow economic growth and worsen trade tensions.
However, Trump announced on Monday that not all of the planned tariffs would be imposed immediately, and some countries might receive exemptions.
“Increasingly, one gets the sense that the US economy is slowing and that the Trump administration does not want to exacerbate a downturn through the harsh imposition of tariffs,” ETM Analytics said in a research note.
As with many emerging market currencies, the rand is influenced by global factors such as US policies and economic data, especially when local developments are limited, Reuters pointed out.
Meanwhile, oil prices saw a slight increase on Wednesday due to supply concerns, driven by the US government’s efforts to limit oil exports from Venezuela and Iran.
A larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories also supported prices. Brent crude was trading at around $73.25 per barrel, nearly $2.50 higher than last week.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 4.6 million barrel drop in US crude oil inventories for the week ending March 21, surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 2.5 million barrel decline.
“Crude oil prices maintain their bullish bias after Trump’s sanctions on Venezuelan oil, raising supply-side concerns,” Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, wrote in a market commentary on Wednesday.
Here are the predicted price changes for petrol, diesel, and paraffin in April 2025:
| Fuel Type | March Official | April Expected | Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R22.09 | R21.40 | -R0.69 |
| 95 Petrol | R22.34 | R21.51 | -R0.83 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R20.16 | R19.24 | -R0.92 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R20.21 | R19.27 | -R0.94 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R14.18 | R13.31 | -R0.87 |
