Motorists in South Africa could see a spike in fuel prices in July, as ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel fuels a surge in global oil prices.
The geopolitical standoff, now in its sixth day, has seen both nations intensify their attacks, with explosions reported in Tel Aviv and Tehran.
Brent crude oil traded near a five-month high of $76.50 per barrel on Wednesday, extending a 4% gain from the previous session amid growing fears that the conflict could drag in the United States and disrupt vital oil supplies.
US president Donald Trump on Tuesday demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” declaring that American forces have “complete and total control of the skies over Iran.” The U.S. military is also reportedly deploying additional fighter aircraft to the region.
Market analysts warn that the real risk lies in potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway responsible for transporting nearly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil, Reuters reported.
Brent crude oil prices have gained about $10 a barrel over the past two weeks, with Fitch Ratings analysts expecting the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to be contained at around $5 to $10.
Over the past two weeks, Brent crude has surged by roughly $10 a barrel. Despite this, JPMorgan is maintaining its base-case forecast for 2025, projecting prices in the low-to-mid $60 range—though the bank warns that a worst-case scenario could push Brent past $120 per barrel.
The ripple effects of the Middle East turmoil are already being felt at home. The rand flirted with R18.00 (R17.96) to the US dollar on Wednesday, reflecting heightened risk aversion in global markets.
Domestic attention turns to key economic data, including consumer inflation and retail sales figures due this week, Reuters reported.
Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that oil prices have driven local fuel price recoveries into negative territory—indicating a likely increase at the pumps.
Here’s the projected fuel price hike for July:
-Petrol 93: +6 cents per litre
-Petrol 95: +9 cents per litre
-Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): +10 cents per litre
-Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): +12 cents per litre
-Illuminating paraffin: +1 cent per litre
| Fuel Type | Inland June | Inland July (Expected) | Coastal June | Coastal July (Expected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R21.24 | R21.30 | R20.45 | R20.51 |
| 95 Petrol | R21.35 | R21.44 | R20.52 | R20.61 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R18.53 | R18.63 | R17.70 | R17.80 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R18.57 | R18.69 | R17.81 | R17.93 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.49 | R12.50 | R11.47 | R11.48 |
Unless tensions ease or oil prices stabilise, South African consumers may come under increasing pressure—not just at the pump, but across the broader economy.
