Expats returning home to South Africa amid GNU fuelled optimism

Many South Africans living abroad are entertaining he idea of returning home following the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).

Berry Everitt, CEO of Chas Everitt International and chairman of the global advisory board for Leading Real Estate Companies of the World, noted an eight to 10% increase in inquiries from expats looking to return to South Africa since the GNU’s formation.

“In the past two weeks, there has been a spike in enquiries from South Africans living in the UK, alarmed at the violent protests that have been taking place there,” he said.

“However, there has been a steady increase since late last year in the number of expats returning from many other countries too, including the US, Australia, New Zealand, Holland, and Germany.”

Other reasons for returning include increased confidence in economic growth with the GNU in place, and the perception of a more peaceful future in South Africa compared to rising tensions in the US, Europe, and the Middle East.

Everitt mentioned that expats returning home include young professionals, families, and retirees. “Demand is highest in Johannesburg and other parts of Gauteng, followed by Cape Town, Hermanus and the Whale Coast, the Winelands, and parts of the Garden Route,” he said.

He also noted that South Africans working abroad for multinationals are being asked to relocate back to ramp up local operations, possibly because they don’t need to navigate the challenging process of obtaining permanent residence or work permits.

Citi meanwhile, has updated its forecast for South Africa’s GDP growth, predicting a rise to 1.2% this year and 2% next year.

The bank attributes this to the positive effects of the two-pot retirement reform, lower inflation, and anticipated interest rate cuts, which are expected to boost consumer spending after years of high inflation and elevated debt levels.

The US multinational projects that inflation will average 4.1% in the fourth quarter. It anticipates a 75-basis point rate cut at the monetary policy committee’s next three meetings in September, November, and January, which it believes will help increase household consumption.

“We expect the two-pot retirement reform [effective September 1, 2024] to boost GDP growth to 2.0% by 2025."