South Africa's central bank is expected to adopt a cautious approach to interest rate cuts despite a significant slowdown in inflation and new challenges emerging in the economic landscape.
According to a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists, Governor Lesetja Kganyago is anticipated to lower the repo rate to 7.75% from 8% during the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision announcement scheduled for November 21 in Johannesburg.
Analysts predict a unanimous vote among the six MPC members supporting the modest 25 basis point reduction.
Despite annual inflation cooling to 2.8% in October—falling below the Reserve Bank’s 3% to 6% target range—economists believe this decline is temporary.
As one expert noted, the central bank will likely "look through this decline" and proceed cautiously.
The South African rand has weakened by nearly 3% against the dollar since early November, reflecting uncertainty in global markets.
A strong dollar, driven by expectations of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, increases the cost of South Africa’s imports, further complicating inflation dynamics.
Meanwhile, risks from global geopolitical tensions and shifting sentiment toward emerging market assets remain on the central bank’s radar. Economists caution that while inflation appears to be retreating, the MPC will likely maintain a measured approach to interest rate adjustments to manage long-term risks effectively.
Inflation dropped significantly to 2.8% year-on-year in October, marking the lowest rate since mid-2020.
The slowdown was largely driven by declining fuel costs, with petrol and diesel prices falling 5.3% between September and October, bringing the annual fuel inflation rate to -19.1%. The inland price for 95-octane petrol reached R21.05 in October—the lowest since February 2022.
Transport costs saw a 5.3% annual decline, contributing a reduction of 0.8 percentage points to overall inflation.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation also eased, dropping to 3.6% in October, its lowest level since November 2019. Key categories such as bread, cereals, milk, eggs, and cheese saw price reductions.
Notably, maize meal prices declined for the third consecutive month, alongside decreases in spaghetti, rice, and samp.
Sugar, sweets, and desserts inflation continued to retreat from its February peak of 18.5%, now standing at 6.9%, despite a slight monthly increase. Hot beverages still recorded the highest inflation among food categories, though the rate has eased in recent months.
While inflationary pressures are moderating across several key sectors, economists remain cautious about underlying risks, advocating a steady approach to interest rate cuts to support sustainable economic recovery.
Comments