Here’s how many people are semigrating to Cape Town’s prime areas

The Western Cape has attracted large numbers of residents from other provinces over the past few years, contributing to it becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in South Africa.

“This surge has a significant impact on urban planning in the Mother City and surrounding areas including the Boland and Overberg regions,” said Annien Borg, regional head for the Boland and Overberg regions at Pam Golding Properties.

During Q1 2024, the Western Cape comprised 29% of ooba Home Loan semigration applications – an increase of 14% since the start of 2020.

The latest figures from property statistics firm, Lightstone, also show a marked increase in semigration to the Western Cape over the past six years, from 2018 – with 2022 reflecting the highest figures.

The Lightstone statistics only reflect semigrants who actually purchased a home in the Western Cape, and excludes those who relocated to this region but are renting.

For example, in 2022, Somerset West attracted 498 semigrants, Hermanus 394, Durbanville 382, Stellenbosch 284 and Paarl 181. Last year’s (2023) statistics were only slightly down – 452 for Somerset West, 359 Durbanville, 287 Hermanus, 276 Stellenbosch, 287 Hermanus and 176 in Paarl.

“Making provision for such large numbers of new residents requires skilful planning on the part of local and provincial government. Boland and Overberg municipalities are steadily implementing new projects to improve infrastructure and ensure quality of life,” said Borg.

Town2022 Semigrants2023 Semigrants
Somerset West498452
Hermanus394287
Durbanville382359
Stellenbosch284276
Paarl181176

On Cape Town’s northern fringes with the Boland, new residential developments are springing up in Durbanville, an area which is experiencing rapid growth. Recreational facilities in the area include the Botterblom Nature Reserve, gyms and golf courses, and shopping amenities include Cape Gate,

Pinehurst Centre, Cobble Walk and Graanendal. New education facilities include the opening of Curro Durbanville’s new high school campus in 2022, while Stadio Holdings plans to develop a comprehensive university campus nearby.

Significant infrastructure projects in the Boland and Overberg regions include:

A R3 billion upgrade project planned for the N1 from Old Oak to Koelenhof interchange near Stellenbosch by the South African Roads Agency (Sanral).

According to a Sanral media statement, a detailed design has been completed for the N1 improvements for the 13 km between the interchanges.

This project entails upgrading from four lanes to a six-to-eight-lane divided highway, five major interchange upgrades and pedestrian safety infrastructure, including street lighting over the entire length.

The plan for the R300 north phase is to extend the busy arterial as a six-lane freeway up to the urban edge north of Durbanville.

The Cape Winelands Airport is expected to start offering local and international flights in 2027, following a R7 billion redevelopment and expansion project. Previously known as the Fisantekraal Airfield, it belonged to the South African Air Force, was sold to private owners in 1993 and is now owned and operated by RSA.Aero.

Redevelopment plans include a passenger terminal that can accommodate 5.2 million passengers a year, cargo terminals, aircraft hangars, a hotel, a heliport, warehousing and logistics facilities, as well as a commercial real estate development. Borg anticipates that Cape Winelands Airport will be a driver of regional economic development and local community inclusion.

A R394 million waste water treatment works in Stellenbosch – completed in 2021, is the single largest capital expenditure item and bulk infrastructure project in the history of Stellenbosch.

Also in Stellenbosch, the municipality is in the planning stages of transforming the Dennesig precinct into a series of ‘living streets’ as part of the town’s comprehensive integrated transport plan.

The project prioritises pedestrians and cyclists but also makes allowance for some motor vehicle access and parking. The main transport objective is to reduce vehicular demand especially for students and residents, to link the Dennesig neighbourhood with the university campus and the CBD.

“With ongoing investments in infrastructure, education, and commercial projects, the Western Cape’s Boland and Overberg areas are well-positioned to accommodate the region’s expanding population, offering residents and home buyers improved amenities and enhanced quality of life,” said Borg.

She said that homes in Boland and Overberg towns are priced to suit buyers in all categories.

“In Stellenbosch, on average apartments sell between R2 million and R4.8 million, however, The Ilex studios in Newinbosch have just gone to market priced from R990 000. In Somerset West three-bedroom homes are priced from R3 million to R12 million, while in Hermanus prices for three-bedroom homes range from R3.5 million to R5 million.

“Lifestyle and security estates are in high demand with semigraters. In Arabella prices start at just above R7 million for a three-bedroom home set on an erf of 598 sqm. Hemel en Aarde prices start at R3.9 million for a three-bedroom home up to R7.9 million for four bedrooms, while in the popular Fernkloof Estate in Hermanus prices start at R12.5 million for a three-bedroom, three-bathroom home on a 651 sqm plot.”

Borg said in Paarl three-bedroom homes come onto the market priced from R2.5 million to R7.5 million, and in sought after Val de Vie a three-bedroom home starts at R9 million.

“For Durbanville and surrounding areas, three-bedroom home prices start at R1.5 million in Bellville and Parow, and from around R4.5 million in the greater Durbanville area.”

Top areas for semigrating South Africans

According to Lightstone Property’s 2024 report, one in four homeowners who sell their property and buy a new one are now choosing to move to another province.

This marks a significant increase from 2019, when only 16% of homeowners opted for interprovincial moves. By 2024, this figure has risen to 27%.

This shift is reshaping the housing market, with approximately 50,000 homeowners participating in this sell-to-buy segment in recent years.

The data focuses on repeat buyers who move across provincial lines, excluding first-time buyers and sellers who do not purchase another home.

While many homeowners still prefer to stay within their home provinces, the percentage of those doing so is steadily declining.

Top Destination for Semigrants

The Western Cape is a leading destination for semigrants, thanks to its natural beauty, economic opportunities, and high quality of life. Cape Town, in particular, has welcomed over 1,500 new homeowners.

Other popular towns include Milnerton and Mossel Bay, with net inflows of 1,249 and 651 residents, respectively. George and Somerset West are also attracting hundreds of semigrants.

The Lightstone report highlights that 14 of the top 15 towns experiencing a net gain in homeowners are in the Western Cape. Jeffrey’s Bay in the Eastern Cape is the only non-Western Cape town on the list, likely due to its proximity to the Western Cape border.

Gauteng and the Western Cape dominate the interprovincial movement market, accounting for 71% of sell-to-buy transactions. Gauteng leads with 48%, while the Western Cape holds 23%.

However, Gauteng has seen a 10% decline in repeat buyers choosing to stay within the province over the past five years, indicating a trend of residents relocating, often to the Western Cape.

In contrast, the Western Cape has maintained a stable retention rate, with 87% of homeowners staying within the province, a slight dip from 89% five years ago.

This stability, combined with the influx of semigrants, reinforces the Western Cape’s reputation as a preferred destination for those seeking a fresh start.

Shifting Patterns Across Other Provinces

While the Western Cape remains the most popular destination for semigrants, other provinces are seeing more significant declines in homeowners staying put.

The Eastern Cape, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo have experienced drops ranging from 9% to 15% in the percentage of repeat buyers remaining within their borders.

This trend reflects a growing desire among South Africans to explore new regions and opportunities.

Notably, around 3,500 homeowners from Gauteng and 870 from KwaZulu-Natal have moved to the Western Cape in recent years. Meanwhile, approximately 1,600 homeowners from other provinces have relocated to Gauteng or the Western Cape.

Reasons Behind the Rise in Semigration

Several factors contribute to the growing trend of semigration. The Western Cape’s reputation for safety, quality education, job opportunities, and natural beauty makes it an attractive option.

Additionally, the lifestyle benefits of living in smaller towns like Mossel Bay, Somerset West, and George—offering a slower pace of life with modern amenities—appeal to those looking to escape the hustle and bustle of larger cities.

As more South Africans seek a better quality of life by moving to new provinces, semigration is set to remain a dominant force in the real estate market.

The Western Cape’s ongoing appeal, combined with shifting homeowner relocation patterns, is likely to continue shaping the country’s housing landscape for years to come.

#TownInflowOutflowNet inflow
1Cape Town1,740179+1,561
2Milnerton1,394145+1,249
3Mossel Bay70150+651
4George56034+526
5Somerset West52629+497
6Durbanville44834+414
7St Helena Bay37816+362
8Groot Brakriver36021+339
9Knysna34826+322
10Hermanus33325+308
11Strand31236+276
12Stellenbosch2647+257
13Langebaan26321+242
14Jeffreys Bay333119+214
15Bellville25444+210

Source: Lightstone Property

Top property search areas for wealthy South Africans

The latest newsletter from Lightstone has identified the top five sought-after suburbs among affluent South Africans, based on property sales data and total purchase prices for the year 2023.

This data indicates shifts in South Africa’s real estate landscape, with Bryanston in Gauteng emerging as the leading suburb in terms of both sales volume and total purchase value for the period.

Sea Point in the Western Cape climbed to second place in 2023, up from third in the previous year, while Midstream Estate in Gauteng slipped to third position after ranking second in 2022.

Notably, Val de Vie and Fresnaye, which occupied the fourth and fifth spots respectively in the Western Cape in 2022, dropped out of the top five in 2023. In their place, Sibaya Coastal Precinct in KwaZulu-Natal claimed fourth position, followed by Sunningdale in the Western Cape at fifth.

The following table illustrates the top five suburbs with the highest number of property transfers valued over R1 million:

#SuburbProvinceVolumeTotal Purchase Price (in billions of Rands)
1BryanstonGauteng802R2.69
2Sea PointWestern Cape679R2.59
3Midstream EstateGauteng567R2.10
4Sibaya Coastal PrecinctKZN419R1.72
5SunningdaleWestern Cape537R1.49

As of February 2024, South Africa’s residential property market is valued at just over R6.8 trillion.

Noteworthy findings from the report include the fact that estates, while comprising only 6.6% of total properties, contribute 18.1% to the overall market value.

Similarly, sectional title properties represent 12.9% of total properties but contribute 15.7% to the market value.

Despite freehold properties making up the largest share of the market at 80.5% of total stock, their contribution to market value is 66.3%.

The average value of properties within estates was approximately R2.7 million in February 2024, compared to R1.1 million for sectional title units and R807,000 for freehold units.

The proportion of properties sold for less than R500,000 has decreased significantly from 58% in 2010 to 31% in 2023, while sales in the R500,000 to R1 million range have remained steady at around 25-26%.

Conversely, there has been a notable increase in purchases within the R1 million to R3 million range, from 15% in 2010 to 35% in 2023, as well as in higher price bands.

Despite a slight decline in residential property transfers in 2023 compared to the previous year, the market remained stable, ending the year with a total value of R241 billion. This figure, although lower than 2022, is higher than that of 2020.

The first two months of 2024 have shown a similar trend, with slightly lower transfer volumes and values compared to the same period in the previous year.

March historically exhibits higher transfer volumes and values, which will be interesting to observe in 2024.