Cape Town is drilling aquifers to secure its water supply for the future

The City of Cape Town is investing in groundwater schemes to secure its water supply for the future. Three new aquifers will add 105 million litres of water per day by 2036.

Investing in aquifers is one of the Water and Sanitation Directorate’s strategic interventions, towards introducing new water sources for the future.

To prepare for a growing population while navigating the unpredictability of climate change, the city is gaining momentum in adding three groundwater schemes as part of the roll out of the New Water Programme. 

Groundwater abstraction is the removal of water from aquifers. It involves drilling a hole deep into the ground, followed by fitting a pump into the borehole and pumping up water from the ground.

The water is then filtered and treated to national water standards. Tapping into groundwater provides an additional source of water to stave off reliance on rain-fed dams.

During the previous financial year, the city invested R390 million in its groundwater schemes.

A further R445 million has been set aside in the current 2024/25 financial year, towards adding 105 million litres of groundwater to the city’s drinking water supply per day, by 2036.

This groundwater supply target from aquifers was set as part of the Water Strategy, to fulfil the city’s commitment to diversifying available water resources for improved water security.

Continuous developments are under way to commission three groundwater schemes: Table Mountain Group Aquifer, Cape Flats Aquifer and Atlantis Aquifer.

Steady progress has been made in the past year in the following areas:

Table Mountain Group Aquifer (TMG)

Table Mountain Group Aquifer is the biggest of the three aquifers comprising approximately 11 000 km².

There are currently eight production boreholes, which have pumped into Upper Steenbras Dam since August 2020.

They yield approximately 20 million litres of water per day.

“We are developing the Peninsula Aquifer, which will increase the wellfield yield to approximately 25 million litres of water per day,” the city said.

This amount can provide 50 000 households (four people per household) with 125 litres of water per person, per day. “We aim to produce 50 million litres of groundwater per day from the various planned TMG wellfields.”

  • A further three drilled boreholes will be equipped giving a production fleet of 11 boreholes.
  • A new water use licence for the Steenbras wellfield was issued by the National Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS), superseding the previous authorisation.
  • Preparations are being made for trial operations of a new production borehole, which has been fully equipped.
  • Electrical and mechanical equipment is being installed for an additional four boreholes, with completion expected by the end of August 2024.
  • Drilling of two, deep core boreholes in the Steenbras area has started and is scheduled to be completed by December 2024.
  • Current exploration efforts include drilling two additional core boreholes in the Groenlandberg area, which has the potential to become a future wellfield.

Cape Flats Aquifer (CFA)

The Cape Flats Aquifer stretches over 400 km², from False Bay in the south, to Brackenfell in the northeast and Milnerton in the northwest.

The Cape Flats Aquifer Management Scheme (CFAMS) consists of five groups of boreholes; Strandfontein West, Strandfontein North and East, Philippi, Hanover Park, Mitchells Plain.

As there are no dams in this area, water abstracted from the boreholes is piped directly to the closest water treatment plant.

“The boreholes are expected to produce 50 million litres a day starting in late 2022. In order to ensure the longevity of the aquifer, and to prevent over-abstraction, we plan to recharge the Cape Flats Aquifer through a process called managed aquifer recharge.”

  • The ‘six million litre per day’ Advanced Water Treatment Plant (AWTP) in Strandfontein West is in the commissioning phase, with performance testing nearing completion.
  • Drilling for the final two production boreholes at Strandfontein West will be done after land transactions have been concluded, followed by equipment installation and commissioning.
  • Construction of the ’10 million litres per day’ Philippi Water Treatment Plant started in June 2024, with borehole drilling and pipeline construction under way.
  • A series of injection boreholes for aquifer storage and recovery are in progress.
  • The civil works on the CFA Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) advanced treatment plant are nearing completion, with major building roofs installed. Site work, such as services and roads, are expected to be finalised by September 2024, with electrical-mechanical components simultaneously starting in August 2024.

Atlantis Aquifer

The Atlantis Aquifer covers an area of approximately 250 km² along the West Coast.

The Atlantis Water Resource Management Scheme has supplied Atlantis with groundwater from the sandy Atlantis Aquifer since the 1970s.

Water is pumped from two groups of boreholes, namely Witzands and Silwerstroom wellfields.

The scheme also comprises wellfield and coastal recharge basins, which replenish the groundwater with treated domestic wastewater and stormwater, to maintain groundwater supplies and ensure environmental sustainability.

The AWRMS supplies between five million to nine million litres of drinkable groundwater per day, and around 0,5 of the city’s supply comes from the Atlantis Aquifer.

Ongoing refurbishment, as well as optimisation of the wellfields and managed aquifer recharge (MAR) infrastructure is expected to increase the groundwater supply volume to 25 million litres per day.

  • A total of 25 boreholes in the Witzands wellfield are being equipped with the required infrastructure to integrate it into the water system and 17 of these have been commissioned and are ready for trials. The remaining eight boreholes are set to be commissioned by December 2024.
  • Drilling of additional boreholes in the Silwerstroom wellfield was completed in June 2024.
  • Construction of a 2 x 5 million litres groundwater storage reservoir at the Witzands softening plant is under way.
  • Improvements to aquifer recharge basins are being made to enhance recharge water quality and maximise scheme yield.

“In the face of climate change and exponential population growth, Cape Town cannot afford to remain solely dependent on dams for water supply in the long-term.

“Having multiple sources of water contributing to the city’s supply, positions us to be more resilient and enables us to meet growing demand for water security in the future,” said the city’s Mayoral Committee Member for Water and Sanitation, Councillor Zahid Badroodien.

City of Cape Town New Water Programme (Aquifers)

DescriptionWater StrategyPlanned completion dateAnticipated yield(Ml/d)
Table Mountain Steenbras P12020Jun 202325
Table Mountain Nuweberg P22022Jun 204015
Table Mountain Groenlandberg P32022Jun 204012
CFA Strandfontein West2020Jun 20246
CFA Hanover Park2021Jun 20264.8
CFA Strandfontein N & E2021Jun 203018
CFA Philippi2021Dec 20277.2
CFA Mitchells Plain WTP2021Jun 203024
Atlantis Aquifer2021Jun 202616

Here’s how many people are semigrating to Cape Town’s prime areas

The Western Cape has attracted large numbers of residents from other provinces over the past few years, contributing to it becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in South Africa.

“This surge has a significant impact on urban planning in the Mother City and surrounding areas including the Boland and Overberg regions,” said Annien Borg, regional head for the Boland and Overberg regions at Pam Golding Properties.

During Q1 2024, the Western Cape comprised 29% of ooba Home Loan semigration applications – an increase of 14% since the start of 2020.

The latest figures from property statistics firm, Lightstone, also show a marked increase in semigration to the Western Cape over the past six years, from 2018 – with 2022 reflecting the highest figures.

The Lightstone statistics only reflect semigrants who actually purchased a home in the Western Cape, and excludes those who relocated to this region but are renting.

For example, in 2022, Somerset West attracted 498 semigrants, Hermanus 394, Durbanville 382, Stellenbosch 284 and Paarl 181. Last year’s (2023) statistics were only slightly down – 452 for Somerset West, 359 Durbanville, 287 Hermanus, 276 Stellenbosch, 287 Hermanus and 176 in Paarl.

“Making provision for such large numbers of new residents requires skilful planning on the part of local and provincial government. Boland and Overberg municipalities are steadily implementing new projects to improve infrastructure and ensure quality of life,” said Borg.

Town2022 Semigrants2023 Semigrants
Somerset West498452
Hermanus394287
Durbanville382359
Stellenbosch284276
Paarl181176

On Cape Town’s northern fringes with the Boland, new residential developments are springing up in Durbanville, an area which is experiencing rapid growth. Recreational facilities in the area include the Botterblom Nature Reserve, gyms and golf courses, and shopping amenities include Cape Gate,

Pinehurst Centre, Cobble Walk and Graanendal. New education facilities include the opening of Curro Durbanville’s new high school campus in 2022, while Stadio Holdings plans to develop a comprehensive university campus nearby.

Significant infrastructure projects in the Boland and Overberg regions include:

A R3 billion upgrade project planned for the N1 from Old Oak to Koelenhof interchange near Stellenbosch by the South African Roads Agency (Sanral).

According to a Sanral media statement, a detailed design has been completed for the N1 improvements for the 13 km between the interchanges.

This project entails upgrading from four lanes to a six-to-eight-lane divided highway, five major interchange upgrades and pedestrian safety infrastructure, including street lighting over the entire length.

The plan for the R300 north phase is to extend the busy arterial as a six-lane freeway up to the urban edge north of Durbanville.

The Cape Winelands Airport is expected to start offering local and international flights in 2027, following a R7 billion redevelopment and expansion project. Previously known as the Fisantekraal Airfield, it belonged to the South African Air Force, was sold to private owners in 1993 and is now owned and operated by RSA.Aero.

Redevelopment plans include a passenger terminal that can accommodate 5.2 million passengers a year, cargo terminals, aircraft hangars, a hotel, a heliport, warehousing and logistics facilities, as well as a commercial real estate development. Borg anticipates that Cape Winelands Airport will be a driver of regional economic development and local community inclusion.

A R394 million waste water treatment works in Stellenbosch – completed in 2021, is the single largest capital expenditure item and bulk infrastructure project in the history of Stellenbosch.

Also in Stellenbosch, the municipality is in the planning stages of transforming the Dennesig precinct into a series of ‘living streets’ as part of the town’s comprehensive integrated transport plan.

The project prioritises pedestrians and cyclists but also makes allowance for some motor vehicle access and parking. The main transport objective is to reduce vehicular demand especially for students and residents, to link the Dennesig neighbourhood with the university campus and the CBD.

“With ongoing investments in infrastructure, education, and commercial projects, the Western Cape’s Boland and Overberg areas are well-positioned to accommodate the region’s expanding population, offering residents and home buyers improved amenities and enhanced quality of life,” said Borg.

She said that homes in Boland and Overberg towns are priced to suit buyers in all categories.

“In Stellenbosch, on average apartments sell between R2 million and R4.8 million, however, The Ilex studios in Newinbosch have just gone to market priced from R990 000. In Somerset West three-bedroom homes are priced from R3 million to R12 million, while in Hermanus prices for three-bedroom homes range from R3.5 million to R5 million.

“Lifestyle and security estates are in high demand with semigraters. In Arabella prices start at just above R7 million for a three-bedroom home set on an erf of 598 sqm. Hemel en Aarde prices start at R3.9 million for a three-bedroom home up to R7.9 million for four bedrooms, while in the popular Fernkloof Estate in Hermanus prices start at R12.5 million for a three-bedroom, three-bathroom home on a 651 sqm plot.”

Borg said in Paarl three-bedroom homes come onto the market priced from R2.5 million to R7.5 million, and in sought after Val de Vie a three-bedroom home starts at R9 million.

“For Durbanville and surrounding areas, three-bedroom home prices start at R1.5 million in Bellville and Parow, and from around R4.5 million in the greater Durbanville area.”

Top areas for semigrating South Africans

According to Lightstone Property’s 2024 report, one in four homeowners who sell their property and buy a new one are now choosing to move to another province.

This marks a significant increase from 2019, when only 16% of homeowners opted for interprovincial moves. By 2024, this figure has risen to 27%.

This shift is reshaping the housing market, with approximately 50,000 homeowners participating in this sell-to-buy segment in recent years.

The data focuses on repeat buyers who move across provincial lines, excluding first-time buyers and sellers who do not purchase another home.

While many homeowners still prefer to stay within their home provinces, the percentage of those doing so is steadily declining.

Top Destination for Semigrants

The Western Cape is a leading destination for semigrants, thanks to its natural beauty, economic opportunities, and high quality of life. Cape Town, in particular, has welcomed over 1,500 new homeowners.

Other popular towns include Milnerton and Mossel Bay, with net inflows of 1,249 and 651 residents, respectively. George and Somerset West are also attracting hundreds of semigrants.

The Lightstone report highlights that 14 of the top 15 towns experiencing a net gain in homeowners are in the Western Cape. Jeffrey’s Bay in the Eastern Cape is the only non-Western Cape town on the list, likely due to its proximity to the Western Cape border.

Gauteng and the Western Cape dominate the interprovincial movement market, accounting for 71% of sell-to-buy transactions. Gauteng leads with 48%, while the Western Cape holds 23%.

However, Gauteng has seen a 10% decline in repeat buyers choosing to stay within the province over the past five years, indicating a trend of residents relocating, often to the Western Cape.

In contrast, the Western Cape has maintained a stable retention rate, with 87% of homeowners staying within the province, a slight dip from 89% five years ago.

This stability, combined with the influx of semigrants, reinforces the Western Cape’s reputation as a preferred destination for those seeking a fresh start.

Shifting Patterns Across Other Provinces

While the Western Cape remains the most popular destination for semigrants, other provinces are seeing more significant declines in homeowners staying put.

The Eastern Cape, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo have experienced drops ranging from 9% to 15% in the percentage of repeat buyers remaining within their borders.

This trend reflects a growing desire among South Africans to explore new regions and opportunities.

Notably, around 3,500 homeowners from Gauteng and 870 from KwaZulu-Natal have moved to the Western Cape in recent years. Meanwhile, approximately 1,600 homeowners from other provinces have relocated to Gauteng or the Western Cape.

Reasons Behind the Rise in Semigration

Several factors contribute to the growing trend of semigration. The Western Cape’s reputation for safety, quality education, job opportunities, and natural beauty makes it an attractive option.

Additionally, the lifestyle benefits of living in smaller towns like Mossel Bay, Somerset West, and George—offering a slower pace of life with modern amenities—appeal to those looking to escape the hustle and bustle of larger cities.

As more South Africans seek a better quality of life by moving to new provinces, semigration is set to remain a dominant force in the real estate market.

The Western Cape’s ongoing appeal, combined with shifting homeowner relocation patterns, is likely to continue shaping the country’s housing landscape for years to come.

#TownInflowOutflowNet inflow
1Cape Town1,740179+1,561
2Milnerton1,394145+1,249
3Mossel Bay70150+651
4George56034+526
5Somerset West52629+497
6Durbanville44834+414
7St Helena Bay37816+362
8Groot Brakriver36021+339
9Knysna34826+322
10Hermanus33325+308
11Strand31236+276
12Stellenbosch2647+257
13Langebaan26321+242
14Jeffreys Bay333119+214
15Bellville25444+210

Source: Lightstone Property

Semigration sparks a property price boom in Western Cape’s seaside towns

Data from the Seeff Property Group shows that the small towns and villages along the West Coast are no longer just seen as holiday or retirement destinations.

The sharp rise in property prices is mainly attributed to the growing trend of semigration and the movement of wealth into the Western Cape.

Semigration trends and the migration of wealth to the West Coast have caused home prices in Elands Bay to more than triple since 2014, with another town close behind.

The scenic fishing villages along the coast, which were once viewed primarily as vacation spots or retirement havens, are now attracting a wider range of homebuyers.

Many South Africans are now drawn to the area for the lifestyle benefits, while also taking advantage of relatively lower property prices compared to other parts of the country.

Wealth migration to the area, driven by those seeking a more relaxed lifestyle while continuing professional or business pursuits, has spurred demand for homes, especially in towns such as Langebaan, Yzerfontein, and Paternoster.

In Langebaan, for example, property prices have skyrocketed, with luxury homes now ranging from R5 million to R8 million.

The town’s proximity to business hubs like Saldanha and Vredenburg has made it attractive to professionals working in the region and those on business contracts.

This demand has resulted in over R1.3 billion in property transactions in Langebaan in the 12 months leading up to September 2024, according to Lightstone data.

Other towns along the coast, including Yzerfontein and St Helena Bay, have seen similar growth, with property values doubling in the past five years.

According to Seeff Property Group data, this trend is not limited to Elands Bay but reflects a broader pattern affecting numerous West Coast towns.

The average price of homes in Elands Bay increased from R400,000 in 2014 to R1.25 million in 2024, representing a 213% jump.

Close behind is Yzerfontein, where property prices almost tripled (196%), with the average price rising from R1.25 million to R3.1 million.

Other areas, like St Helena Bay and Paternoster, saw average house price increases of 107% and 106%, respectively.

TownAvg. price 2014Avg. price 2024% price increase
Elands BayR400,000R1.25 million+213%
YzerfonteinR1.25 millionR3.1 million+196%
St Helena BayR724,000R1.5 million+107%
PaternosterR920,000R1.9 million+106%
LangebaanR1.3 millionR2.3 million+76%
MalmesburyR850,000R1.4 million+65%
VredenburgR520,000R837,000+61%
DarlingR750,000R1.2 million+60%
SaldanhaR570,000R827,000+45%
Lambert’s BayR849,000R1.1 million+30%
Average:+96%

Source: Seeff/Lightstone

Foreign buyers have also contributed to the rising demand in the Western Cape’s coastal towns.

These areas, with their iconic Cape-style architecture and untouched beaches, are not only attractive to South Africans but also to international buyers looking for vacation homes or investment properties.

The surge in property values and sales activity, especially during the property market boom of 2021 and 2022, is closely tied to this influx of both local and foreign wealth.

The rental market has also experienced significant growth. Towns like Yzerfontein and Langebaan have active rental markets, with demand exceeding supply.

Smaller properties rent for around R10,000 to R12,500 per month, while larger, three-bedroom homes can fetch between R16,000 and R24,000.

Luxury rentals in estates or upscale areas command higher prices, ranging from R25,000 to R30,000 per month.

In Paternoster, rental prices are slightly lower, with the median home price at about R1.9 million, making it more affordable for a wider range of renters.

While wealthier buyers and retirees dominate the market in some areas, younger families are drawn to more affordable towns like Saldanha, Vredenburg, and Malmesbury.

These towns tend to offer more budget-friendly properties, attracting a different demographic than the luxury markets in Langebaan or Yzerfontein.

The Western Cape, particularly the West Coast, remains a popular destination for internal migration.

According to Lightstone Property, more than 3,500 homeowners from Gauteng and nearly 900 from KwaZulu-Natal have relocated to the Western Cape, reinforcing the region’s lasting appeal.

The combination of lifestyle benefits, affordability, and growing infrastructure continues to make this coastal area a prime destination for both buyers and investors.

Seaside towns on West Coast see property prices double in 5 years

The small West Coast towns and villages are no longer just for holidays and retirement, as more people are moving into areas such as Langebaan, but also Yzerfontein and further afield to St Helena Bay and Elands Bay, according to agents from the Seeff Property Group.

The beautiful fishing villages, many with white-washed Cape vernacular architecture have seen a strong shift in sales activities during the market boom of 2021/1.

The migration of wealth to the West Coast is seeing prices of up to R5 million to R8 million being paid for luxury homes in Langebaan.

People working or with businesses in Saldanha and Vredenburg, as well as those who come to the West Coast for contracts and other business reasons, often prefer to settle in places such as Langebaan.

This has boosted the Langebaan property market where transactions worth over R1.3 billion were recorded for the twelve months to the end of September, according to Lightstone data.

 

Given the proximity to Cape Town, under two hour’s drive, Langebaan is a popular weekend getaway, and many Capetonians own homes, or rent Airbnbs. Families are also moving there, and now have access to a Curro School.

 

Areas like Malmesbury have benefited from the upgrades to the N7 Cape Town to Namibia Route that runs through the region.

Given that it is only about a 40-minute drive from Cape Town, many people choose to settle there and commute daily.

 

Lightstone data shows the West Coast property markets boomed during the 2021/2 period resulting in notable growth in median prices over the last five years, doubling in areas such as Yzerfontein and Paternoster, while areas such as Langebaan, Malmesbury and St Helena enjoyed a notable uptick.

Most towns experienced growth of 60% to as much as 107% and even 196% over the last ten years, according to the data.

 

Price growth over 5 and 10 years

 Ave Price2024Ave Price2019% Price IncrAve Price2014% Price Incr
YzerfonteinR3.1mR1.5m106%R1.25m196%
LangebaanR2.3mR1.8m28%R1.3m76%
PaternosterR1.9mR1.2m133%R920k106%
SaldanhaR827kR700k18%R570k45%
VredenburgR837kR700k33%R520k61%
MalmesburyR1.4mR945k48%R850k65%
DarlingR1.2mR750k60%R750k60%
St Helena BayR1.5mR1.1m36%R724k107%
Elands BayR1.25mR1m25%R400k213%
Lambert’s BayR1.1mR1m10%R849k30%
Ave growth  50% 96%

Source: Seeff/Lightstone

 

Yzerfontein currently boasts the highest average transaction price of R3.1 million followed by Langebaan at R2.3 million. The West Coast is more popular with buyers and investors than ever before, according to Seeff’s agents.

Jaco and Tracey-lee Coetzee, from Seeff Langebaan say that correctly priced high-end properties are still attracting buyers. Over the last year, Seeff has sold apartments in Marina Village for R3.55 million and R3.75 million, and luxury homes in Calypso Beach for between R6.9 million and R8.8 million.

These were mostly holiday homes and apartments including a South African Expat from Canada who purchased a holiday home. The beautiful Club Mykonos remains popular.

The highest demand is now in the R1.5 million to R2.9 million range, including new developments, according to the agents.

 

The rental market is also very active with plenty of rentals available, according to Mariska Le Roux and Mariszka van der Linde, from Seeff Langebaan.

The average rental is between R10,000 to R12,500 for small properties, and R16,000 to R24,000 for three-bedroomed properties. Estates and high-end suburbs range from R25,000 to R30,000 per month.

 

The Yzerfontein market is quite seasonal and is expected to pick up again, according to Michelle Livingstone-Louw and Nelia Retief, from Seeff.

There is no less demand for high-end properties, and land in view of the high prices, and slower market. Yzerfontein Heights III though remains in demand with plots selling for R1.05 million to R1.3 million, and plot and plan packages at R3.585 million and R4.1 million for a luxury, three-bedroomed house.

 

Rentals are always in demand in Yzerfontein which often exceeds the supply. Rental prices range from around R12,000 (apartments) to around R30,000 at the top end for a luxury house.

 

Paternoster is also not priced at the higher end with a median price of R1.9 million. Saldanha, Vredenburg and Malmesbury tend to offer more affordable prices, and also attract younger buyers including families.

Buyers in Yzerfontein, Langebaan, and St Helena Bay tend to be mostly older, comprising a mix of holiday and retirement buyers.

Although a low turnover area with only about a dozen sales annually, most recent buyers (77%) in Elands Bay were over fifty.

Property owners have doubled their money over the past decade in these areas

The Cape Winelands and Boland regions have seen significant growth in recent years, with property prices now reaching upwards of R10 million to R20 million, particularly in Stellenbosch, according to local property experts.

Data from Lightstone reveals that median property prices have surged between 53% and 119% over the last 5 to 10 years, driven by increased emigration and the appeal of a peaceful, country lifestyle.

This region, including towns like Stellenbosch, Franschhoek, and Paarl, has attracted affluent buyers, especially within high-end estates such as Val de Vie and De Zalze, noted Seeff Property Group.

Young families are also drawn to the area, thanks to its proximity to prestigious schools like Paul Roos and Rhenish Girls’ High in Stellenbosch, Bridge House in Franschhoek, and Paarl Boys and Girls High Schools. Stellenbosch University is another key factor driving demand.

The region’s natural beauty, including its mountains and vineyards, along with its closeness to Cape Town, enhances its desirability. The upcoming Winelands Airport is also expected to fuel further demand for property in the area.

Stellenbosch leads the property market, with approximately R3 billion in transactions recorded over the past year (October 2023 to September 2024). Paarl follows with R1.8 billion, Franschhoek at R742 million, and Wellington at R493 million.

Franschhoek holds the highest average transaction value at R5.5 million, followed by Stellenbosch at R3.2 million and Paarl at R2 million. Property values in these towns have grown by up to 64% over the past five years and have doubled over the last decade.

Stellenbosch’s appeal lies in its Cape Dutch architecture, esteemed university, and exclusive wine estates. Upper-end neighborhoods like Brandwacht aan Rivier, De Zalze, and Welgegund Domaine Prive are particularly sought after, with properties now selling for between R8 million and R13 million, and some exceeding R20 million.

Rentals are also in demand, with students paying R6,000 to R9,000 per person for accommodation. Families tend to seek townhouses and homes priced between R15,000 and R37,500 per month.

In Paarl, factors like access to top rugby schools and its appeal to older buyers, golfers, and seasonal visitors from Europe contribute to the property market’s strength.

Popular areas include Hoog-en-Droog, Courtrai, and Boschenmeer Golf Estate, with buyers typically looking in the R3.7 million to R5.25 million range.

Rental demand is also strong, with properties in Boschenmeer and Le Parc ranging from R12,000 to R25,000 per month.

Franschhoek is known for its picturesque village charm and is one of the most expensive areas, with the majority of sales exceeding R3 million.

Homes generally sell for between R8 million and R20 million, and the demand for both short-term and long-term rentals remains high. Tenants often seek properties priced between R10,000 and R20,000 per month.

Wellington, known for its vineyards and nurseries, is a popular choice for those seeking a balance between a rural lifestyle and accessibility to Cape Town. Ceres, located about 90 minutes from Cape Town, is another emerging area, with buyers looking for homes priced between R1 million and R2.5 million.

Growth in house prices in the Cape Winelands and Boland region over the last decade.

 TownPrice in 2024Price in 201410-year growth
CeresR1.8mR400k350%
PaarlR2.0mR990k102%
FranschhoekR5.5mR2.75m100%
StellenboschR3.20mR1.60m100%
Riebeek-KasteelR2.6mR1.3m100%
MalmesburyR1.6mR850k88%
WellingtonR1.66mR950k74%
TulbaghR1mR730k37%

South Africans turn to credit to pay for rising living costs

TransUnion’s Q2 2024 South Africa Industry Insights Report shows a 15.2% increase in overall credit originations, indicating that South Africans are increasingly using new and existing credit products to meet their rising consumption needs through credit cards, personal loans, and retail revolving loans.

The number of credit-active consumers grew by 4.7% year-over-year to 18.5 million, with 28.1% holding credit cards.

This shows that more South Africans have access to financial products and services for essential lifestyle needs.

Consumption-led products, which are used for day-to-day expenses, accounted for 83% of all new credit opened, growing by 16.8% year-over-year in Q2 2024.

The credit market in the country had an outstanding balance of R2.37 trillion, up 3.7% year-over-year, with total balances within consumption-led products increasing by 5.1% year-over-year.

“Growth in new credit products issued and use of existing credit is typically driven by economic requirements as consumers take on credit to boost their available income during challenging economic times,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa.

“However, there is hope on the horizon as inflation decreased during the quarter, with annual food price inflation at its lowest since late 2020. Consumers are likely to see further respite in the coming months, along with the reduction in interest rates this combination will likely provide relief to stretched household budgets.”

Table 1: Summary of Q2 2024 Metrics for Major Consumer Credit Products

ProductYoY Growth in Origination VolumesYoY % Change in Total Outstanding BalancesSerious Account Delinquency Rate*YoY Basis Points (bps) Change in Delinquency Rate
Credit card9.3%+10.3%12.4%-0 bps
Personal loans**16.7%+2.6%32.6%-240 bps
Home loans16.2%+3.2%7.2%+50 bps
Vehicle asset finance-5.0%+3.0%5.4%-10 bps
Clothing accounts12.2%+8.9%28.5%-150 bps
Retail revolving25.2%+12.2%17.4%-230 bps
Retail instalment-6.6%+12.9%27.9%-180 bps

Personal loan originations saw a 16.7% year-over-year increase in Q2 2024, making up 77% of all new credit originations. However, the average new loan amount dropped by 14.2%, indicating that lenders were offering smaller amounts to balance portfolio health and rising consumer demand.

Over the past year, most new personal loans were for amounts under R5,000, with these smaller loans making up 75% of new loans in Q2 2024, up from 73% in the same quarter of 2023. In Q2 2024, 3.2 million consumers took out new personal loans for R5,000 or less, compared to 1.9 million in the same period of 2023.

Lenders are closely examining risk profiles. In Q2 2023, 77% of consumers who took out personal loans under R5,000 had a below prime risk profile, which decreased to 74% in Q2 2024.

Non-bank lenders granted 90% of loans under R5,000 in Q2 2023, compared to 86% in Q2 2024. Meanwhile, bank lenders increased their share from 10% in Q2 2023 to 14% in Q2 2024. These trends show that lower amount loan seekers are driving growth for both bank and non-bank lenders.

Account-level delinquency rates improved by 240 basis points year-over-year to 32.6%, indicating that cautious risk management by lenders has helped reduce delinquency and support consumers in managing their debt.

Demand for personal loans remains strong, with 33% of consumers in the Consumer Pulse Survey planning to apply for a new personal loan in the next 12 months, more than any other credit product.

A recent study of TransUnion’s South African credit card population found that credit card growth has been driven primarily by existing cardholders opening additional new cards. However, the number of first-time credit cardholders is rising rapidly. In the most recent quarter, 38% of originations were issued to first-time cardholders, the highest proportion since Q1 2020.

“Opportunity exists to enable greater access to financial inclusion by getting the first credit card into a consumer’s wallet,” said Naik.

Mortgage growth continued, especially in the affordable housing sector. Despite high interest rates in Q2 2024, mortgage originations grew by 16.2% year-over-year, with the average new loan amount increasing by 1.7% to R940,675.

In the first half of 2023, 32% of mortgages were granted to subprime and near prime consumers, increasing to 36% in the first half of 2024.

Mortgages granted to super prime borrowers declined from 41% in the first half of 2023 to 37% in the first half of 2024.

“The growth in mortgages in the affordable housing bracket and the increase in mortgages granted to below prime borrowers seem to highlight banks’ intent to support South Africans in their quest to own property,” Naik said.

“We also note that while there’s been growth in originations, the rate of growth has also increased substantially, which may in turn indicate increased homeowner confidence, supported by banks’ confidence in the country’s property market and in their risk strategies to accommodate more lenders.”

Warning over residential property market in South Africa

Landsdowne Property Group, one of South Africa’s largest residential real estate managers and estate agency company says recovery in the residential property market will take time, although interest rate cuts, lower inflation and other external factors are major catalysts for a start of a mind shift of rejuvenation.

 

Jonathan Kohler, Founder and CEO of Landsdowne, said: “During the past year, activity in the property market has stalled as consumers remain under significant financial pressure on all fronts. Disposable household income not only had to contend with a higher-for-longer interest rate environment but was further eroded by significant increases in electricity rates, food and transport costs.”

 

The South African Reserve Bank is likely to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points, which would lower the benchmark repo rate to 8%, at the conclusion of its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Thursday.

This anticipated cut follows a decrease in inflation to its lowest level in over three years, coupled with ongoing sluggish economic growth.

Recent data from Statistics South Africa shows that inflation fell to 4.6% year-on-year in July, down from 5.1% in June, marking the lowest rate since July 2021.

 

In its July meeting, the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) revised its inflation forecast for the year to 4.9%, down from a previous estimate of 5.1%.

The MPC also expressed concerns about persistently high global interest rates, including those in the United States, noting that rates might remain elevated longer than markets had expected.

 

“The good news is that most of these risks have receded, buoyed further by a revival in positive consumer sentiment on the back of the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU), an end to loadshedding, as well as a stronger performance by the rand, which led to consistent reductions in the cost of fuel as a welcome spin-off,” said Kohler. 

 

He added that lower inflation rates will support demand for property, as well as homeloans becoming more affordable as banks relax their lending criteria.

 

Kohler, however, warns that it will take time before we see the start of a sellers’ market any time soon, and that some significant headwinds remain.

 

“Although we’ve seen an increase in appetite from prospective homebuyers, their buying power is still limited. The respite of a marginal interest rate cut will have minimal impact, and even a 0.5% drop in interest rates will take time to reflect in demand for new homes, as consumers will likely first settle more expensive credit cards and other debt,” he said.

 

Kohler said prospective homebuyers will also need to factor in ongoing rates and utility increases and looming water-shedding that will require additional capital outlay to overcome.

 

For this reason, he believes that some consumers will continue to prefer renting as opposed to buying a property, as the monthly expenses are largely locked in, protecting the tenant from significant upswings.

 

The table below demonstrates the impact of various interest rate cuts on a R1 million home loan bonded over 20 years, where a 0.25% reduction in the prime lending rate will leave homeowners with R173 per month extra.

A 0.5% reduction will result in additional disposable income of R345 per month.

Loan amount (no deposit)Interest rateMonthly bond repaymentMonthly saving on current prime rate
R1,000,00011.75% (current prime)R10,837 
R1,000,00011.50% (0.25% reduction)R10,664R173
R1,000,00011.25% (0.5% reduction)R10,492R345

Source: Landsdowne Properties

 

Kohler said there are pockets of excellence with transactions still taking place though volumes are down. Especially Johannesburg, which offers exceptional value for discerning buyers.

 

“Johannesburg will most likely benefit most from a series of interest rate cuts,” he says. “Over the past decade, there has been little to no capital appreciation in the city, making it a buyers’ market at the moment,” Kohler said.

 

He believes prudent investors can unlock some value, especially if the rate cut cycle continues, supported by ongoing positive sentiment around the country and Johannesburg macro-outlook.

The popular Gauteng estates with the best price growth over five years

The demand for security estates in Gauteng has surged, leading to significant value growth in these properties over the past five years.

According to the Seeff Property Group, nearly one-third of Gauteng’s property transactions last year involved estate properties. Although freehold housing remains the most common, estates have become the fastest-growing segment in the market.

Lightstone data reveals there are over 6,500 gated communities and estates across South Africa, making up about 5% of market stock and contributing to 15% of the total residential property value.

Buyers are drawn to estates for the quality of life they offer. “Security and a better quality of life are two of the most important aspirations of property buyers and tenants regarding estate living,” the company noted.

Many estates feature amenities like clubhouses, gyms, pools, retail spaces, and private schools, and some operate like mini municipalities, providing a secure, well-maintained environment.

Louise Cawood, manager for Seeff in Pecanwood Estate, highlighted the shift from weekend getaways to permanent residences in the estate, which is located about an hour from Pretoria and Johannesburg.

“Aside from excellent amenities and waterfront living, the estate has its own borehole water supply and sewerage works. It only relies on Tshwane for electricity and Madibeng for refuse removal,” she explained.

In Gauteng, about half of the country’s estates are concentrated, with estate properties accounting for 16% of all sales transactions and 28% of the total transaction value.

The majority (73%) of these sales were freehold houses, with an average price of R2.45 million, compared to R1.13 million for a standard freehold house in the province.

Estates are also popular for rentals, commanding some of the highest rates. PG van der Linde, rentals manager for Seeff Pretoria East, mentioned that estates like Woodhill Golf Estate see rates of up to R79,300 per month, with some high-end homes listed for up to R95,000 per month.

Over the past five years, freehold estate houses in Gauteng have seen a price increase of 17%, while sectional titles have risen by 21.6%.

Areas like Centurion, with estates like Midstream, and Bedfordview/Edenvale are particularly popular, with buyers ranging from locals to those returning from abroad.

Dave Ingle from Seeff Bedfordview noted that it’s a good time to buy estate properties, with excellent value options available in estates like Emerald, Thorn Valley, Bushwillow Park, and Lakeside Village.

The Sandton/Midrand area is home to about 40 estates, including some of the most exclusive and expensive in the country.

Eagle Canyon in Johannesburg North-West offers a range of homes priced from R2.2 million for sectional titles to around R5 million for freehold houses, with rental rates between R20,000 and R40,000, and up to R70,000 per month for luxury homes.

Gauteng estates with the best price growth over five years for freehold houses

  Estate Area5-Year GrowthAverage PriceHighest PriceAverage Rentals
1Woodhill Golf EstatePretoria East37.5%R5.5 millionR20 millionR15k-R95k
2Pecanwood EstateHartbeespoort32%R3.5 millionR13.5 millionR20k-R55k
3Thornhill EstateModderfontein25%R3.8 millionR10 millionR25k-R40k
4Blue Valley Golf EstateCenturion24%R3.6 millionR20 milionR23k-R55k
5Blair Atholl EstateCenturion22%R12.8 millionR67 millionR40k-R65k
6Silver Lakes Golf EstatePretoria East17%R4.4 millionR35 millionR25k-R75k
7Kyalami EstateMidrand16%R4.4 million R18k-R40k
8Midstream EstateCenturion16%R4.4 millionR30 millionR18k-R50k
9Eagle Canyon EstateRoodepoort16%R5.1 million R20k-R50k
10Dainfern Golf EstateMidrand15%R5.8 millionR35 millionR25k-R95k

South Africa’s biggest banks over 8 major metrics

The Banker has published its 2024 ranking of the world’s top 1000 banks based on tier 1 capital levels, with six South African banks making the cut.

Standard Bank remains the leading bank in South Africa by capital, followed by FirstRand, Absa, and Nedbank.

The Banker notes that while South Africa’s banks continue to outperform other African banks, this lead is becoming less secure. Banks in countries like Morocco are closing the gap.

This trend is partly due to the slow growth of South Africa’s economy, which saw a modest 0.6% GDP growth in 2023, barely avoiding a technical recession in several quarters.

On a GDP per capita basis, the country has been in recession for some time, and the outlook for 2024 is slightly better, with the IMF predicting only 0.9% growth.

In comparison, Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to average 3.8% growth, and a weak rand continues to hinder banking performance in dollar terms.

Despite these challenges, South African banks reported strong results in local currency terms in their most recent annual reports. Standard Bank and Capitec were the only local banks to increase their tier 1 capital, with the others seeing declines compared to the 2023 rankings.

Standard Bank Group remains the largest lender by tier 1 capital and assets in South Africa and the continent, even though its assets slightly declined in dollar terms in 2023, according to The Banker.

Capitec also saw increases in tier 1 capital, assets, and pre-tax profits in dollar terms and improved its position in the global rankings.

Although The Banker did not provide specific figures for Capitec’s tier 1 capital, estimates based on available data suggest it exceeds $2 billion.

The Banker creates a comprehensive ranking of bank performance by evaluating eight key indicators.

These indicators include growth, profitability, liquidity, return on risk, and overall financial health. Considering all these factors, Standard Bank and FirstRand hold the top two spots as the best-performing banks in South Africa, with Nedbank coming in third.

Indicator1st2nd3rd
GrowthFirstRandStandard BankAbsa
ProfitStandard BankFirstRandNedbank
Operational EfficiencyFirstRandNedbankStandard Bank
Asset QualityInvestecFirstRandStandard Bank
Return on RiskStandard BankFirstRandNedbank
LiquidityStandard BankNedbankAbsa
SoundnessAbsaStandard BankNedbank
LeverageAbsaStandard BankNedbank
OverallStandard BankFirstRandNedbank