South Africa jobless rate overstated, says Capitec boss

Capitec chief executive officer, Gerrie Fourie has questioned South Africa’s official unemployment figures, suggesting the rate could be significantly lower when the country’s vast informal sector is taken into account, as reported by Business Day.

According to the latest data from Stats SA, South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 32.9%, but Fourie argues this figure is misleading.

“What is interesting is when you look at the unemployment rate, we talk about 32%. But Stats SA doesn’t count self-employed people. I really think that is an area we must correct. The unemployment rate is probably actually 10%. Just go look at the number of people in the township informal market, who are selling all sorts of stuff, who have a turnover of R1,000 a day,” Fourie said.

Fourie, who is preparing to retire from South Africa’s largest bank by customer base—with over 24 million clients – in July, believes the informal economy plays a far greater role in employment and economic activity than the data reflects.

“To grow SA, we need to understand what is happening there [in the emerging market]. If we really had a 32% unemployment rate, we would have had unrest. If you go to the townships, most people have back-rooms to rent out, everyone is doing something. If we are talking job creation, let’s go out and encourage these entrepreneurs.”

Fourie criticized Stats SA for overlooking this “emerging market,” describing the entrepreneurs within it as “discouraged” job seekers. He added that Capitec sees this under-recognized sector as a “growth unicorn” and is working to extend its retail banking success into business banking by serving these informal operators.

Capitec estimates that South Africa has around 3 million formal SMMEs and an additional 3 million “emerging” businesses operating informally. The bank sees a major opportunity in serving the informal SME segment.

Speaking at an event in Stellenbosch in late 2024, Francois Viviers, Capitec’s executive for marketing and communications, highlighted the potential of this underserved market.

“We think there is double that in the informal sector, and we have seen in our research that there are people who are operating in township areas who provide fresh food to the market or provide transport, own a couple of hair salons or run a Tshisanyama, that have high turnover all of it cash and they are not included in the formal banking space.”

“We believe if you can include them by enabling their digital payments, creating visibility of their turnover, then that creates a possibility for us to provide funding that they can use to grow their business. That is where we see an opportunity.”

South Africa’s small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs) are already major economic contributors, accounting for approximately 34% of GDP and employing around 60% of the workforce, according to the Banking Association of South Africa.

However, FinScope’s MSME 2024 survey reports that 72% of these businesses operate informally and rely primarily on cash transactions. The sector’s total estimated turnover stands at R5.29 trillion.

At Capitec’s recent annual financial results presentation, Fourie reiterated the bank’s commitment to tapping into this sector. “There’s about 3 million spaza shops out there, 70% of them in the informal market. How do we capture that market and actually unlock the potential in South Africa?”

“We see growth potential in the informal economy in South Africa. There is a need for credit, insurance, VAS, payment channels, education and support that has not previously been addressed. We will work towards meeting this need. We have a large branch network in the right strategic locations, and we will leverage this,” said Fourie.

South Africa’s informal sector plays a crucial yet often overlooked role in the country’s economy, providing jobs and incomes for millions who struggle to find opportunities in the formal labour market.

According to a Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), informal sector employment accounted for 19.5% of total employment in the fourth quarter of 2024.

StatsSA conducted a Survey of Employers and Self-Employed (SESE) in 2023. The Survey collects information on businesses not registered for value added tax (VAT). These businesses are referred to as businesses in the informal sector.

Despite economic uncertainties, the informal economy has shown resilience, with 1.9 million South Africans running non-VAT registered businesses in 2023, up from 1.5 million a decade earlier.

Tourism game-changer on KZN’s North Coast

Set along the scenic North Coast of KwaZulu-Natal, Club Med SA is set to become South Africa’s largest resort development after Sun City.

Once complete, it is expected to serve as a major catalyst for economic growth in the region, drawing international tourists and creating thousands of jobs.

The project is being backed by the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), the biggest development finance institution in Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s one of the IDC’s largest tourism undertakings to date, adding to its current tourism exposure of about R3 billion.

The Club Med SA development will result in the creation of an economic hub with a high development impact in an underdeveloped node. An estimated 2,000 jobs will be created through the project — with further creation of downstream jobs across the value chain of linked services.

Even French airliner Air France is exploring adding a new route to Durban, thanks to the resort project.

Kagisho Bapela, head of the Services Strategic Business Unit (SBU) at the IDC, said: “The direct impact is 2,000 jobs on construction and permanent employees. A further 1,500 indirect jobs are expected to be created.”

He stressed that the resort’s economic influence extends well beyond direct employment, with a wide range of industries expected to benefit. From food and furniture to linens and other essential amenities, the project will stimulate growth across the entire supply chain.

“If you think about it long-term, there is going to be a marked shift in the KZN economy. We are impressed by the recruitment and training of 110 staff members for kitchen and restaurant roles through the NukaKamma Hospitality School, an NGO dedicated to educating young and unqualified individuals from Ballito townships,” said Bapela.

“The local crime stats for the villages surrounding the construction site are already reflecting a 60% decrease in reported cases compared to this time last year. This tells us that the people are already meaningfully engaged, and the jobs are creating a sense of ownership.”

Construction on Club Med SA began in March 2024. The resort has been designed to achieve Level 4 Green Building Certification incorporating features that improve energy efficiency, air quality, and occupant wellbeing.

Nestled on the shores of the Indian Ocean in Tinley Manor, it includes 345 hotel rooms being built by 17 main contractors with 250 subcontractor packages, and 1,400 personnel onsite daily – 90 offsite project staff.

Key features of the property include a beach club, a resort centre, children’s club and villa suites. It also boasts a 500-seat convention centre, marking Club Med’s entry into the local business tourism market.

And not to be missed will be the accompanying safari lodge in Mpilo Game Reserve — a private Big Five reserve located in northern KwaZulu-Natal that covers more than 8,623ha — offering a magical safari and beach experience suitable for families.

Ken Ogwang, senior dealmaker in the IDC’s Services SBU, said they chose to work with Club Med SA because of its global footprint in the hospitality business.

Club Med, founded in 1950, is a family-centric travel and tourism operator and is believed to have pioneered the all-inclusive holiday experience. It operates 70 resorts in 32 countries including Indonesia, Thailand, Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, Turkey, France, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Portugal.

“The other aspect you get from using an international operator is that you get their brand. If someone is sitting in Jamaica or New York, they know what Club Med is in the global tourism landscape,” he said.

The resort site spans two hills with planned access roads. “We are under very tight deadlines with Club Med global for delivery. If you imagine 1,000 foreign guests on opening day, we can’t very well send them packing back to Europe because the resort is not ready,” said Chris du Toit, the resort’s project lead.

Bulk services including roads, a dam, water infrastructure and a permanent electrical supply are soon to be completed.

According to Olivier Perillat-Piratoine, Club Med SA CEO, the construction of the resort is more than halfway complete. “The construction is doing fantastic. The roofing is completely finished for all the buildings, a sign of good progress. We are launching the reservation in October for the opening in July next year.”

He said Club Med would leverage its global presence to attract international visitors. “We are a very powerful brand. We have a large base of loyal international customers who will trust us with their South African holiday. This is tens of thousands of international travellers that will come to us and they will also spend money and venture outside of the resort.” For us it is a brilliant addition to our existing portfolio of destinations.”

Eskom gives positive update as snow and cold grips South Africa

Power utility Eskom is expected to return at least 2,550MW capacity to the grid by evening peak on Monday as South Africa braces for severe winter conditions throughout the country this week.

The power utility said it is making “steady progress” in tapering down maintenance season with the Energy Availability Factor “fluctuating between 61% and 64%” last week.

“While system constraints are occasionally experienced, adequate emergency reserves are in place and are being strategically deployed to support demand during the morning and evening peak periods, particularly as the country prepares for a forecasted cold spell in the coming week.

“We plan to return a total of 2,550MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak [today] to further stabilise the grid,” the power utility said.

In May Eskom shared its Winter Outlook which covers the period from 1 May 2025 to 31 August 2025, noting that that load shedding would be avoided if unplanned outages remain below 13,000 MW.

If outages reach 15,000 MW, load shedding would be limited to Stage 2.

Eskom revealed that Medupi Unit 4 is in the last phases of recovery following damages sustained in 2021.

“Commissioning activities are currently underway and Grid Code compliance testing is expected to resume in the coming week. The unit is anticipated to return to service within June 2025.

“Diesel usage is expected to decline further as more units return from long-term repairs and maintenance activities are reduced, increasing available generation capacity.

“The Winter Outlook…covering the period ending 31 August 2025, remains valid. It indicates that load shedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13 000MW. If outages rise to 15 000MW, loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2,” Eskom said.

The power utility has encouraged communities to “avoid illegal connections and energy theft” even as the winter period rolls in.

“These activities often lead to transformer overloads, equipment failures, and in some cases, explosions and extended outages, prompting the need for load reduction to protect the network.

This is the home that comes with a R530k monthly bond over 20 years

A high-end beachfront villa in Plettenberg Bay is up for sale, commanding the attention of ultra-wealthy buyers with a price tag of R52 million – a monthly bond of more than half a million rand (R528K).

The property, positioned on a 1,000-square-metre plot – 800 square metres under roof, sits directly on a secluded stretch of coastline, offering uninterrupted ocean views and direct beach access.

The residence includes five bedrooms—four of which are en-suite on the lower level – and 5.5 bathrooms. The entire upper level is reserved for a master suite featuring a private lounge, steam room, and rooftop terrace.

The home also includes an indoor glass-enclosed pool, a second outdoor pool, and a three-car garage.

Designed with influences from Balinese and Japanese architecture, the house features curved slate roofs, timber accents, and extensive use of imported marble and underfloor heating.

Pocket doors throughout provide fluid transitions between indoor and outdoor spaces.

Additional features include:

-Walk-in cold store and scullery
-Off-grid energy system powered by three Tesla Powerwall 2 batteries
-24/7 security, CCTV, and electric perimeter fencing

The villa is located less than 10 minutes from both Plettenberg Bay Central and the local airport. Viewings are available by appointment only.

This listing adds to a growing number of ultra-luxury homes for sale along the Western Cape’s coastline, a region that continues to attract foreign investors, executives, and high-net-worth South Africans seeking security and coastal seclusion.

The salary you need to afford the average home in South Africa today

A recent study by an independent economist has revealed a stark reality in South Africa’s housing market: fewer than 16% of South Africans can truly afford homes priced above R1.3 million.

The findings shine a light on the growing divide between bank loan approvals and actual affordability, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of homeownership in the country.

According to Henri Le Grange, certified financial llanner at Old Mutual Personal Finance, qualifying for a bank loan doesn’t necessarily mean you can afford all the costs that come with owning a home.

“The affordability gap often arises because banks assess loan eligibility primarily based on income thresholds, without considering your broader financial plan,” Le Grange explains.

Banks typically evaluate affordability based not only on gross income but also on disposable income, net income, and previous monthly expenses.

“However, they look at past data and may not account for additional costs that come with homeownership, such as maintenance, insurance, or the impact of interest rate changes,” Le Grange said.

“As a result, I’ve seen customers approved for loans that exceed their true repayment capacity, threatening their financial well-being. This disconnect highlights the importance of seeking professional advice before buying a home,” said Le Grange.

Research by Izak Odendaal, investment strategist at Old Mutual Wealth, highlights key reasons why owning a home remains out of reach for many South Africans: stagnant wages, rising inflation, and higher interest rates. “South Africa’s high interest rates and rising property prices have made homeownership increasingly difficult.

“Many prospective buyers have been locked out of the market due to these combined factors, resulting in record low affordability levels in the housing sector,” he said.

This is reflected in the country’s average home purchase price, which now exceeds R1.6 million – up dramatically from R150,000 in 1994, according to alternative home financier Sentinel Homes.

Renier Kriek, managing director at Sentinel Homes, attributes the trend to the higher cost of constructing new homes versus trading existing stock. With demand shifting to old stock, prices continue to escalate, pushing affordability even further out of reach for most buyers he said.

The affordability gap becomes more apparent when breaking down actual housing costs. For a home priced at R1.3 million, and a 10% deposit, a buyer would need to cover once-off costs of around R210,000.

This translates to a gross monthly income requirement of R39,593 to cover a bond repayment of R11,878.

At the average national house price of R1.6 million, the numbers become even steeper. With a 10% deposit and R255,650 in once-off costs, a buyer would need to earn at least R48,730 per month to meet a monthly bond repayment of R14,619.

In stark contrast, BankservAfrica reports that the average take-home pay in April 2025 declined to just shy of R17,495. This figure underscores the wide chasm between earnings and what’s needed to own a home at prevailing market rates.

According the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) from Stats SA, the average salary in South Africa stood at R28,231 in Q4.

In some areas, property averages are well out of reach for most. RE/MAX noted that the average listing price on its platform in the last quarter of 2024 was R2,950,093—well beyond what the average South African can afford.

The Western Cape remains the most expensive province, with an average home price of R1,730,225, followed by KwaZulu-Natal (R1,248,923) and Gauteng (R1,065,800).

As property prices continue to outpace income growth, experts caution that South Africa could be headed toward a deeper affordability crisis.

Semigration buyers flock to these small towns in the Western Cape

The property market in several sought-after country towns including Swellendam, Bonnievale, Ladismith, Barrydale, Struisbaai, Riversdale, and Pearly Beach has seen a significant surge in transactions this year, according to Jaco Badenhorst, sales manager for Seeff Country and Karoo.

Agents have reported a sharp increase in sales driven by buyers looking to relocate due to healthy local economies and low crime rates. The limited stock for sale has made the market highly competitive.

Well-priced properties are attracting multiple offers and selling quickly, often within days of being listed.

Lightstone data shows that over 8,000 transactions worth almost R9.5 billion were concluded across the Cape countryside last year with about 90% of transactions below R1.5 million.

Freehold houses in the more popular towns averaged at between R1.8 million to R2.5 million.

Semigration, retirement, and remote working are big drivers of the demand. Growth in local industries such as the major R4.5 billion Overberg Wind Farm Project near Swellendam is another boost while more buyers are also turning their holiday homes into their permanent residence, he said.

Aside from the lifestyle aspects, Badenhorst said the attraction includes the ability to buy a lot more for your money in the country towns.

The towns mostly offer good infrastructure, access to schools, and proximity to bigger commercial centres. Properties are still overwhelmingly freehold houses, but the sectional title market is growing with new lifestyle and retirement estates coming into the market.

Towns such as Swellendam, Barrydale, and Riversdale have active agriculture, tourism, and small business sectors, which may appeal to new residents. An influx of workers and professionals has boosted demand for rental homes in and around Swellendam and Bredasdorp.

Badenhorst said many landlords are reporting full occupancy, and rental prices are beginning to reflect the increasing demand.

Val Anderton and Marinda Roux, agents with Seeff Swellendam say they have seen an increase in enquiries from Gauteng and Pretoria as young families look to relocate due to the excellent schools and wholesome environment to raise children.

While the average price is in the R2.4 million to R3.4 million range, they are seeing interest in higher priced properties. Rentals are also in high demand.

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There’s also growing interest in estates such as the new Oewerlust Estate, selling from R2.417 million is for example also attracting investment buyers.

The Barrydale area is very active in the R2.5 million range with buyers coming from all over, especially the Cape, some downscaling or retiring, and others working remotely, says Beate Joubert, an agent with Seeff. Large homes suitable for conversion to guest houses are also in demand.

Another coastal hotspot, Gansbaai has also seen a significant surge in activity and prices over the past few years, according to Anet Rossouw from the Seeff.

The average property price has climbed to approximately R2.25 million – an increase of over R1 million in just four years.

This coastal gem is drawing strong interest from across South Africa, she adds. Nearly 60% of buyers are from Gauteng, with a further 10% from other provinces, and the remaining buyers primarily from the Western Cape in search of weekend getaway homes.

It’s now nearly impossible to find an average three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with a double garage for under R2.3 million. With rising demand and limited supply, time is of the essence for buyers.

Fairvest secures 5 retail properties in KZN and Western Cape for R478 million

JSE-listed real estate investment trust Fairvest has announced the acquisition of five commuter-focused retail properties in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape for a combined value of R477.7 million, continuing its strategy of investing in retail assets that serve previously disadvantaged communities.

The portfolio, acquired at a blended yield of 9.81%, reinforces Fairvest’s commitment to growing its exposure to high-footfall, convenience-based shopping centres located near public transport and community hubs.

Fairvest holds a portfolio of 127 retail, office and industrial properties valued at R12.5 billion (held directly and through subsidiaries).

The average value per property held as at 31 March 2025 was R98.1 million.

Fairvest concluded separate agreements with various parties, including Collins Property Group, Manguzi Shopping Centre, and Bishops Court Properties, to secure five retail assets, all anchored by national tenants such as Shoprite, Boxer, SuperSpar, and OK Furniture.

These acquisitions are aligned with the group’s focused investment strategy and offer attractive initial yields, it said in a statement. The assets serve resilient consumer nodes and support Fairvest’s long-term objectives of sustainable income growth.

Property NameLocationGross Lettable Area (m²)Purchase Price (R)
Nquthu Shopping CentreNquthu, KwaZulu-Natal4,895R66.6 million
Ulundi Shopping CentreUlundi, KwaZulu-Natal4,476R38.9 million
Eyethu JunctionMadadeni, KwaZulu-Natal7,498R103.2 million
Manguzi Shopping CentreManguzi (Kosi Bay), KwaZulu-Natal8,425R136.0 million

“Fairvest is making consistent progress in transforming its diverse portfolio by improving the quality while pursuing its aim of becoming a retail-only REIT servicing low-income communities in South Africa.

“This is achieved by disposing of non-core assets and reinvesting in retail-focused properties. Approximately 70% of revenue is already generated from retail properties,” said CEO of Fairvest, Darren Wilder.

KwaZulu-Natal Retail Centres

Fairvest reached agreements with subsidiaries of Collins Property Group – namely Imbali Props 21 and Colkru Investments – to acquire three strategically located centres across KwaZulu-Natal for R208.7 million at a blended yield of 9.75%.

The acquisitions are subject to customary conditions precedent and are expected to transfer by 1 August 2025.

Manguzi Shopping Centre

Fairvest will also acquire 100% of the shares and claims in Manguzi Shopping Centre Proprietary Limited, which owns an 8,425m² retail centre in Manguzi (formerly Kosi Bay). The centre is anchored by Shoprite, and the R136 million deal was struck at a 9.75% yield.

Transfer of ownership is expected on or about 1 August 2025, pending fulfilment of standard conditions precedent.

Acquisition of Thembalethu Square

The group will acquire Thembalethu Square, located just outside George in the Western Cape, via a newly formed subsidiary, Mzanzi Mall Thembalethu Proprietary Limited, in which Fairvest holds a 51% stake.

The 8,734m² centre is anchored by Shoprite and Boxer, and the deal was concluded for R133 million at a 9.97% yield.

This acquisition is unconditional, with transfer expected to take place by 1 July 2025.

The group on Friday delivered a strong set of interim results for the six months ended 31 March 2025, declaring a cash dividend of 69.66 cents per A share and 23.10 cents per B share, representing full distribution of earnings.

Despite a challenging operating environment, Fairvest achieved an 8.8% increase in distribution per B share, while A share distributions rose 2.7%. The Group expects B share earnings for the full year to grow between 8.0% and 10.0%.

Total revenue (excluding straight-line rental income) increased 6.9% to R1.07 billion, and like-for-like net property income rose by 5.1%. Vacancies were kept low at 5.5%, and the group’s loan-to-value ratio improved to 31.8%, reflecting its conservative financial strategy.

Mr Price turns store growth into record profit

Value fashion and homeware retailer Mr Price Group says it opened 184 new stores during its 2025 financial year, expanding its total footprint to over 3,000 stores across South Africa.

This store growth supported a 4.3% increase in trading space and contributed to the company’s continued market share gains and strong financial performance.

The group opened its 3000th store at The Mutual Mall in November 2024, bringing total stores to 3,030 in the current financial period.

The group acquired Yuppiechef in 2021, followed a year later by the R3.3 billion purchase of a 70% stake in the Studio 88 Group—owner of brands such as SideStep, John Craig, and Skipper Bar—adding more than 700 stores to its portfolio.

For the 52 weeks ended 29 March 2025, Mr Price reported a 7.9% increase in total revenue to R40.9 billion, alongside a record operating profit of R5.8 billion, an 8.9% rise from the previous year.

The company’s gross profit margin expanded by 80 basis points to 40.5%, while operating margin increased to 14.2%. Diluted headline earnings per share grew by 10.1% to 1,379.3 cents.

The group’s retail sales rose 7.8%, with online sales increasing 7.9%, reflecting the success of Mr Price’s omni-channel strategy. Comparable store sales increased 3.4%, accelerating to 5.7% in the second half of the year, which also saw a notable sales momentum despite a slower retail February and a shift in school holidays.

Mark Blair, Group CEO, said: “The first half of the financial year was challenging for the retail sector but improved in the second half. We are very satisfied to have gained similar levels of market share in both periods, reflecting the value we were able to provide our customers despite very different economic conditions. The growth in sales momentum through the second half was supported by strong comparable store sales growth and GP margin gains across all trading segments.”

Key highlights include:

Revenue exceeding R40 billion for the first time
Retail sales growth of 7.8% (H2: 9.9%) with market share increasing 50 basis points
Gross profit margin expanding 80 basis points
Record operating profit of R5.8 billion, up 8.9% (H2: 11.7%)
Cash generated by operations reaching R8.7 billion, contributing to a cash balance of R4.1 billion
Diluted headline earnings per share increasing 10.1% (H2: 12.1%)

The Apparel segment led growth with retail sales rising 7.9% to R31.4 billion, alongside strong market share gains and improved gross margins. The Homeware segment continued its recovery with 6.4% retail sales growth, driven by improved margins and strong brand equity. The Telecoms segment saw a 13.2% increase in sales, boosted by the launch of the group’s private label device Salt and high accessories attachment rates.

Blair added: “We have a strong but disciplined growth mindset. Our team has evaluated many opportunities and declined most. Our three acquisitions in recent years have delivered a combined operating profit of R1.2 billion in FY2025 and continue to be earnings accretive. Our focused research is ongoing to identify the next growth vehicle that will support the achievement of our long-term vision.”

“While there is a great deal of uncertainty around us, our team is extremely focused on delivering consistently strong earnings performances. Our strategy is clear, and we remain sharply focused on executing our proven business model.”

Looking ahead, Mr Price anticipates continued growth with plans to open approximately 200 new stores in the coming year and increased investments in store revamps, supply chain, and technology.

New pension model proposed to help South Africans secure retirement

South Africa’s pension system urgently requires reform, with Old Mutual’s head of corporate savings and income, Fred van der Vyver, advocating for a more stable and equitable solution through the adoption of a Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) scheme, similar to the one implemented in the United Kingdom.

The 10X Investments Retirement Reality Report found that only 6% of South Africa’s population is on track to retire comfortably, highlighting a significant retirement savings crisis, with most people facing financial difficulty in their “golden years”.

Meanwhile, a study in early 2025 by Sanlam Corporate found that while the official retirement age in South Africa is 65, a significant number of South Africans will likely need to work until they are 80 to afford a comfortable retirement. This is due to the rising cost of living, lengthening life expectancies, and the fact that many South Africans don’t save enough for retirement.

“Our internal member data indicates that while 65 remains the official retirement age, only 25% of South Africans can afford to retire at this age. Most people will need to work an additional 15 years to achieve financial security in retirement,” said Kanyisa Mkhize, the chief executive of Sanlam Corporate.

Old Mutual noted that a volatile first quarter—fuelled by geopolitical shocks, including renewed trade tensions under President Trump’s second-term economic agenda – was further unsettled last week by a ruling from the US Court of International Trade blocking key tariff proposals.

Global markets, including equities and bonds, reacted sharply around the world, highlighting a fundamental flaw in the Defined Contribution (DC) retirement system: even those who do everything right remain vulnerable to losing critical savings through no fault of their own, said van der Vyver.

“Financial security at retirement is increasingly being determined not by how much you save – but by when you retire. We need a model that cushions individuals from unpredictable shocks and gives them confidence that their efforts will translate into a stable, secure retirement,” he said.

This systemic vulnerability was starkly demonstrated during the COVID-19 crisis. In early 2020, as markets collapsed in response to the global pandemic, thousands of South Africans were retrenched or forced into early retirement.

Many had to exit their retirement funds at the lowest point of the market, locking in losses that could not be recovered. By contrast, those who retired just a year later – after the markets had rebounded – fared significantly better.

The difference? Timing, not planning, said van der Vyver. “This pattern highlights a fundamental shortcoming of the Defined Contribution system, which now dominates South Africa’s retirement landscape. In a DC fund, each individual saves and invests independently, and their retirement outcome depends on how markets perform at the time of withdrawal,” he said.

Unlike the Defined Benefit (DB) model – which guaranteed a fixed pension based on years of service and salary – DC shifts all investment risk to the individual. There is no built-in protection if markets fall just before retirement.

To address this structural weakness, van der Vyver pointed to the CDC as a more stable and equitable alternative. CDC schemes retain individual contributions but pool investments, allowing members to share market risk and benefit from smoother returns over time. This collective structure provides protection from market shocks and reduces the role of timing in determining retirement outcomes.

A CDC pension is a group savings plan where members pool their money together to create a shared pension pot. This pot is then used to pay out retirement incomes to all members of the scheme.

How does it work?
Everyone pays in: Workers (and often their employers) contribute a fixed amount of money every month into the scheme.
Money is pooled: Instead of having individual pots for each person, all the contributions are pooled together into a single big fund.
Investments: The fund is invested to help it grow over time.
Shared risk: Everyone in the scheme shares the investment risk and reward. If investments do well, retirement incomes may go up. If investments do badly, incomes might go down — but the burden is shared across the group.
Predictable income: Unlike individual pensions, a CDC scheme aims to give members a more predictable income in retirement (though it’s not guaranteed like a defined benefit pension).

The UK introduced CDC schemes in 2022, and Royal Mail was the first major employer to adopt one for its employees. The Dutch pension system also uses a similar collective approach which inspired the UK model.

“CDC offers a more predictable outcome,” said van der Vyver. “It ensures that your income in retirement better reflects your lifetime of contributions—not the mood of the market when you exit the workforce.”

He pointed out that the current DC framework does include some protective features—such as life-staging strategies, smooth bonus portfolios, and default annuity options—which aim to reduce the impact of poor timing. However, these mechanisms are not systemically embedded and often require active decision-making by individuals.

In contrast, CDC integrates these protections directly into the fund structure, offering built-in safeguards rather than optional enhancements, said Old Mutual.

Research presented from Aon at the August 2024 Old Mutual Thought Leadership Forum shows that CDC schemes have the potential to deliver up to 30% higher retirement incomes than standard DC arrangements, depending on fund design, investment performance, and governance.

These gains are driven by lower fees, better long-term investment efficiency, and the ability to avoid locking in losses during downturns. Countries like the UK and the Netherlands are already moving towards CDC to future-proof their pension systems in an era of longevity and volatility.

Still, van der Vyver acknowledged that CDC is not a silver bullet. For one, members generally cannot pass unused savings on to heirs, which may concern those viewing retirement funds as part of a broader wealth transfer strategy.

Issues of intergenerational fairness must also be addressed to ensure younger workers do not disproportionately subsidise older members. Furthermore, portability across employers and sectors requires careful regulatory design.

“These are valid concerns,” he said, “but they are challenges of design, not principle. We’ve already demonstrated, through reforms like the Two-Pot System, that when there’s political will and industry cooperation, complex change is possible.”

As South Africa continues to grapple with global instability, rising life expectancy, and a growing crisis of confidence in retirement outcomes, van der Vyver warned that the real risk is inaction.

“The longer we delay structural changes to deliver more consistent outcomes, the more we undermine public trust in retirement saving. We must build a system that rewards long-term commitment and protects people from forces they can’t control. The current model simply doesn’t yet deliver that.”

South Africa’s best performing REITS right now

South Africa’s REIT sector maintained its upward momentum in May 2025, delivering a 4.1% return for the month.

Once again, it outperformed both the broader equity market (3.1%) and bonds (2.7%), reinforcing its recovery trajectory.

This latest gain follows a strong 6.9% return in April, bringing the sector’s year-to-date performance to 6.7%—a notable rebound after a sluggish start in January.

Although REITs still lag behind the broader equity market’s impressive 14% year-to-date growth, they have now outpaced bonds in 2025.

This shift signals renewed investor confidence, coinciding with South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield recently dipping below 10% for the first time in over three years.

Ian Anderson, head of Listed Property and portfolio manager at Merchant West Investments – and compiler of the SA REIT Association’s monthly Chart Book – attributed the sector’s improving sentiment to several key drivers.

“The positive outlook is largely driven by expectations of lower interest rates in South Africa, a small reprieve in global tariff tensions, and growing evidence that property fundamentals are strengthening. These trends set the stage for higher distributable earnings growth across the sector in 2025 and 2026.”

Several REITs published financial results in May, providing further evidence of the sector’s ongoing recovery.

Redefine Properties, for instance, reported interim results for the period ending February 2025, with revenue rising 3.5% and distributable income per share increasing 0.7%.

The company maintained its full-year guidance, projecting distributable income per share between 50 and 53 cents – representing growth of 0% to 6%.

Equites Property Fund posted full-year results in line with expectations, increasing distributions by 2.1% to 133.92 cents per share.

More notably, the company’s guidance for 2026 exceeded consensus, with anticipated distribution growth between 5% and 7%, driven by robust rental escalations and a premium logistics portfolio shaped by two years of strategic asset recycling.

Equites was the top-performing REIT in May, with its share price advancing 10%.

Spear REIT also delivered strong results, benefiting from its focused strategy in the Western Cape. Its share price rose 9% following the release of its full-year results for the period ending February 2025.

The company also announced the acquisition of Berg River Business Park in Paarl for R182.15 million through an all-share transaction.

Other REITs reporting in May included Burstone, Delta Property Fund, Dipula Properties, Emira Property Fund, and Octodec Investments. Across the board, a consistent theme emerged: improving property fundamentals across all sub-sectors, further boosting investor sentiment.

The total market capitalisation of South Africa’s REIT sector has now exceeded R250 billion—its highest level since January 2020.

“With further interest cuts a possibility, stabilising macroeconomic conditions, and improving company guidance, investor confidence remains strong, and the momentum is likely to carry through the remainder of 2025,” said Anderson.