The PayInc Net Salary Index, which tracks the average nominal net salaries of around 2.1 million South African earners, rose for the sixth consecutive month in September 2025.
This steady growth reflects both the gradual improvement in economic activity and the resilience of the labour market in recent months.
Positive forces in the economy include low inflation, recent interest rate cuts, real increase in salaries for the second consecutive year, and lower fuel costs. These are in addition to the diversified trade composition, higher commodity prices, a stable and stronger rand exchange rate.
The PayInc Net Salary Index reached R21,428, which was 0.3% up on August’s level and 2.3% higher than a year ago.
The index shows that average net salaries strengthened by 4.3% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
Following the South African Reserve Bank’s acquisition of BankservAfrica, the payment clearing house system operator changed its name to PayInc.
PayInc analysis also indicates that just over 175 000 additional salaries were paid during the first nine months of the year.
Elize Kruger, independent economist, said: “While a welcome development, the official unemployment rate remains stuck at around 33%, as the economy, at current sluggish growth rates, is simply unable to create enough new opportunities to absorb all new entrants into the job market on an annual basis.”
Nevertheless, the PayInc Net Salary Index points to an improved labour market in Q3 2025, with average net salaries rising 0.4% quarter on quarter and approximately 48,000 more salaries paid during the period.
“The refreshed PayInc Net Salary Index confirms the narrative that 2025 will on average be a good salary year, despite uncertainties and challenges impacting the economic outlook.”
In real terms, the PayInc Net Salary Index increased by 0.2% month-on-month to R20,806 in September 2025, up slightly from R20,767 in August.
While this marks the third consecutive month that real net salaries remain below year-ago levels, the relatively low average consumer inflation of 3.1% in the first nine months of 2025 means that real net salaries are still up 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
“With average consumer inflation forecast at 3.3% in 2025 – lower than the 4.4% in 2024 – and industry data suggesting an average salary increase above 5%, 2025 will likely be the second consecutive year of a real increase in earnings,” said Kruger.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has expressed its preference to see consumer inflation anchored at the lower end of the 3–6% target band, sparking debate over the feasibility of a proposed 3% target and the steps required to achieve it.
“One aspect that could potentially be a near-term hurdle is the fact that trade unions and the business sector are still believing that inflation would average around 4.3% in the next five years, as reflected in the Bureau of Economic Research’s Q3 inflation expectations survey,” said Kruger.
Many recent wage agreements have been extended to three- or five-year terms, often resulting in pay levels higher than today’s low inflation environment.
“While adjusting to a lower inflation environment will be challenging and take time, recent data show early signs of moderating inflation expectations and salary adjustments becoming more aligned with this trend,” Kruger said.
The economist said that for 2025, industry indications suggest an average salary increase of around 5.3%, compared to a forecast inflation rate of 3.3%. “While this could boost spending, it will only be sustainable if productivity growth keeps pace,” said Kruger.
